Thunder lead 4-3 with 9:30 left in the first, so this one is still wide open. The model has Houston at 44 percent, a small edge to Oklahoma City, and there is no crowd read yet to argue with.
NBA · · Toyota Center · every National Basketball Association line
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Houston Rockets: final score and how the prediction did, October 31, 2026
- Final scoreThunder 98, Rockets 119 the projected winner lost
- Pregame Projected winnerThunder 56%
- Model spreadeven total 225
- Margin21
- Total217 projected 225
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Oklahoma City Thunder or Houston Rockets: the bandwagon
Axle 56–44Market 42–58
FinalPregame: HOU 44%Baseline: HOU 86.5% (+42.3)Big swing: 13.8 ptsClutch window: none
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC | 26 | 25 | 24 | 23 | 98 |
| HOU | 35 | 27 | 30 | 27 | 119 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
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Oklahoma City Thunder at Houston Rockets win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+0.0 points for HOU over the last 5:00
Big swing13.8 ptstoward HOU at 14:57 of game time
Clutch windowNonenever within 5 points in the final quarter
BaselineHOU 86.5%game average, +42.3 points from the pregame 44.3%
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Houston Rockets live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | OKC | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Field goals | OKC37/85 | HOU41/90 |
| 3-pointers | OKC10/32 | HOU18/41 |
| Free throws | OKC14/15 | HOU19/23 |
| Rebounds | OKC42 | HOU44 |
| Assists | OKC20 | HOU28 |
| Turnovers | OKC14 | HOU10 |
| Steals | OKC8 | HOU5 |
| Blocks | OKC4 | HOU7 |
| Points in the paint | OKC44 | HOU30 |
| Fast-break points | OKC13 | HOU13 |
| Fouls | OKC20 | HOU13 |
| Largest lead | OKC4 | HOU27 |
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Houston Rockets team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | OKC | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Score | OKC98 | HOU119 |
| Average win probability | OKC13% | HOU87% |
| Longest scoring run | OKC+8 | HOU+10 |
| Time leading | OKC0:13 | HOU44:24 |
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Houston Rockets model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET
Thunder56%
Win chanceRockets44%
SpreadPKclosing model spread
Total225
Moneyline−126away / +126homeaway / home
Line movementHOU win chance, 15 stored lines
+7 pts for HOU between Oct 28 and Oct 31
51%32%
Oct 28Oct 30Oct 31
Every stored line
| Stored | HOU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 10:51 PM ET | 44% | −2 |
| Oct 30, 10:26 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 9:36 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 46% | +3 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 2:00 AM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:06 AM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:41 AM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:09 AM ET | 43% | +6 |
| Oct 28, 11:54 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 37% | — |
- Ratings
- HOU 1618 · OKC 1721
- Home spread
- PK
- Stored
- Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET · 2026-10-31 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Oklahoma City Thunder 98, Houston Rockets 119. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In National Basketball Association a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries in the data, not usedplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores · read Oct 31, 5:30 AM UTC
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
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ThunderRockets
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ThunderRockets
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Rockets–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Thunder vs Rockets odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NBA marketKalshi had the Thunder at 42% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 42% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 56% when last read, .
| Source | OKC | HOU | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 42% | 58% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 42% | 58% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 56% | 44% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, HOU: +13Polymarket minus model, HOU: +13
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Houston Rockets prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Thunder the favorite, with a 56% chance to win; its spread rounds to even. The model total is 225. Ratings: Rockets 1652 (5th of 30), Thunder 1710 (2nd). The Rockets are 7-1 in the Southwest; the Thunder are 5-2 in the Northwest. The Rockets have won 3 of their last 5; the Thunder 3 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Rockets won 3, the Thunder 3.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Oklahoma City Thunder
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Cleveland Cavaliers | W 124–116 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Cleveland Cavaliers | W 117–112 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Houston Rockets | L 98–119 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Dallas Mavericks | L 96–120 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Phoenix Suns | W 125–114 | – | – | matchup |
Houston Rockets
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Minnesota Timberwolves | L 107–117 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Boston Celtics | W 109–93 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Oklahoma City Thunder | W 119–98 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Dallas Mavericks | L 111–116 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Milwaukee Bucks | W 132–100 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma City Thunder at Houston Rockets | 89–116 | – | – | matchup | |
| Houston Rockets at Oklahoma City Thunder | 112–106 | – | – | matchup | |
| Oklahoma City Thunder at Houston Rockets | 111–91 | – | – | matchup | |
| Houston Rockets at Oklahoma City Thunder | 124–125 | – | – | matchup | |
| Oklahoma City Thunder at Houston Rockets | 111–125 | – | – | matchup | |
| Houston Rockets at Oklahoma City Thunder | 128–137 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Oklahoma City Thunder: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Houston Rockets: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Thunder5-2 Northwest, 4th · W1
- Thunder rating1710 2nd of 30, 7 games
- Rockets7-1 Southwest, 5th · W2
- Rockets rating1652 5th of 30, 8 games
National Basketball Association · Northwest · 4th · streak W1
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No stances yet today on $THUNDER: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Oklahoma City Thunder bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Houston Rockets 7-1
National Basketball Association · Southwest · 5th · streak W2
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $ROCKETS
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No stances yet today on $ROCKETS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Houston Rockets bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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