Colorado leads 3-0 in the second period, and the model has the Avalanche at 68 percent at home. The crowd has not weighed in yet, so the only number that moves the picture right now is the score.
NHL · · Ball Arena · every National Hockey League line
Calgary Flames vs Colorado Avalanche: final score and how the prediction did, October 31, 2026
- Final scoreFlames 2, Avalanche 5 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerAvalanche 68%
- Pregame Projected scoreAvalanche 3.8, Flames 2.8
- Model spreadAvalanche −1 total 6.5
- Margin3 projected 1
- Total7 projected 6.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Calgary Flames or Colorado Avalanche: the bandwagon
Axle 32–68Market 22–78
FinalPregame: COL 68%Baseline: COL 88.5% (+20.6)Big swing: 15.6 ptsClutch window: none
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| COL | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Shots
CGY 27COL 34
Calgary Flames at Colorado Avalanche win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+0.0 points for COL over the last 5:00
Big swing15.6 ptstoward COL at 14:12 of game time
Clutch windowNonenever within 1 goals in the final period
BaselineCOL 88.5%game average, +20.6 points from the pregame 67.9%
Calgary Flames vs Colorado Avalanche live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | CGY | COL |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | CGY27 | COL34 |
| Hits | CGY25 | COL13 |
| Blocked shots | CGY11 | COL10 |
| Power play | CGY0/0 | COL1/3 |
| Faceoff win | CGY39.2% | COL60.8% |
| Takeaways | CGY2 | COL2 |
| Giveaways | CGY17 | COL18 |
| Penalty minutes | CGY6 | COL0 |
Calgary Flames vs Colorado Avalanche team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | CGY | COL |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CGY2 | COL5 |
| Average win probability | CGY12% | COL88% |
| Longest scoring run | CGY+2 | COL+4 |
| Time leading | CGY0:00 | COL45:48 |
Calgary Flames vs Colorado Avalanche model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Oct 31, 9:56 PM ET
Flames32%
Win chanceAvalanche68%
SpreadCOL −1closing model spread
Total6.5
Moneyline+212away / −212homeaway / home
Line movementCOL win chance, 13 stored lines
+2 pts for COL between Oct 28 and Oct 31
74%61%
Oct 28Oct 30Oct 31
Every stored line
| Stored | COL win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 9:56 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 9:56 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 9:46 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 10:51 PM ET | 68% | −1 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 69% | +1 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:48 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:40 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:44 PM ET | 68% | +1 |
| Oct 28, 11:14 PM ET | 67% | +1 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 66% | — |
- Ratings
- COL 1567 · CGY 1461
- Home spread
- −1
- Stored
- Oct 31, 9:56 PM ET · 2026-11-01 01:56 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Calgary Flames 2, Colorado Avalanche 5. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In National Hockey League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries in the data, not usedplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores · read Oct 31, 5:30 PM UTC
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
FlamesAvalanche
Neutrals only–
FlamesAvalanche
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Avalanche–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Flames vs Avalanche odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NHL marketKalshi had the Avalanche at 78% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 78% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 68% when last read, .
| Source | CGY | COL | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 22% | 78% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 22% | 78% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 32% | 68% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, COL: +10Polymarket minus model, COL: +10
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Calgary Flames vs Colorado Avalanche prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Avalanche a 1-point favorite at home, with a 68% chance to win. The model total is 6.5. Ratings: Avalanche 1566 (2nd of 32), Flames 1461 (29th). The Avalanche are 9-6-1 in the Central Division; the Flames are 7-8 in the Pacific Division. The Avalanche have won 3 of their last 5; the Flames 2 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Avalanche won 5, the Flames 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Calgary Flames
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Seattle Kraken | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at San Jose Sharks | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Colorado Avalanche | L 2–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Seattle Kraken | W 6–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Edmonton Oilers | L 0–4 | – | – | matchup |
Colorado Avalanche
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Columbus Blue Jackets | L 2–7 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Chicago Blackhawks | W 5–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Calgary Flames | W 5–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New Jersey Devils | W 5–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Nashville Predators | L 2–6 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Avalanche at Calgary Flames | 7–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Colorado Avalanche at Calgary Flames | 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Calgary Flames at Colorado Avalanche | 1–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Calgary Flames at Colorado Avalanche | 2–9 | – | – | matchup | |
| Calgary Flames at Colorado Avalanche | 3–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Colorado Avalanche at Calgary Flames | 4–2 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Calgary Flames: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Colorado Avalanche: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Flames7-8 Pacific Division, 6th · W1
- Flames rating1461 29th of 32, 15 games
- Avalanche9-6-1 Central Division, 4th · L1
- Avalanche rating1566 2nd of 32, 16 games
Calgary Flames 7-8
National Hockey League · Pacific Division · 6th · streak W1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $FLAMES
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $FLAMES
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $FLAMES: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Calgary Flames bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Colorado Avalanche 9-6-1
National Hockey League · Central Division · 4th · streak L1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $AVALANCHE
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $AVALANCHE
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $AVALANCHE
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $AVALANCHE: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Colorado Avalanche bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Calgary Flames at Colorado Avalanche
Sign in to post a take on $FLAMESAVALANCHE261101: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
Final: Flames 2, Avalanche 5. Bandwagon's model had the Avalanche at 68% and projected Avalanche 3.8, Flames 2.8; spread Avalanche −1, total 6.5. Last read: Kalshi 78%, Polymarket 78% for the Avalanche.