UMass Lowell River Hawks vs Merrimack Warriors prediction, odds and picks, November 5, 2026
- Projected winnerMerrimack 76%
- Projected scoreMerrimack 77, UMass Lowell 68
- Model spreadMerrimack −9 total 145.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
UMass Lowell River Hawks or Merrimack Warriors: the bandwagon
Axle 24–76Market –
UMass Lowell River Hawks at Merrimack Warriors win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
UMass Lowell River Hawks vs Merrimack Warriors live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
UMass Lowell River Hawks vs Merrimack Warriors team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | UML | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UML– | MRMK– |
| Average win probability | UML– | MRMK– |
| Longest scoring run | UML– | MRMK– |
| Time leading | UML– | MRMK– |
UMass Lowell River Hawks vs Merrimack Warriors odds
Every stored line
| Stored | MRMK win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 9:05 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 9:05 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 12:10 AM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:13 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:08 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:18 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:03 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:30 AM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:19 AM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:05 AM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:35 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:14 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:04 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:59 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:38 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:17 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:12 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:57 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:41 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:36 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:31 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:16 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:06 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:31 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:41 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:58 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:05 AM ET | 76% | −3 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 12:08 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 79% | −3 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 82% | +17 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 65% | — |
- Ratings
- MRMK 1553 · UML 1463
- Home spread
- −9
- Stored
- Nov 4, 9:05 PM ET · 2026-11-05 02:05 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule unavailable for this game · First game of a season for at least one siderest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · No venue coordinates stored for the home sidedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
UMass Lowell River Hawks vs Merrimack Warriors prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Warriors a 9-point favorite at home, with a 76% chance to win. The model total is 145.5. Ratings: Warriors 1553 (86th of 361), River Hawks 1463 (237th). The Warriors are 0-1; the River Hawks are 1-0. The Warriors have won 4 of their last 5; the River Hawks 2 of their last 5. The two have met 3 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Warriors won 1, the River Hawks 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
UMass Lowell River Hawks
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at UMBC Retrievers | L 69–91 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UAlbany Great Danes | W 81–76 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Maine Black Bears | W 67–56 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UMBC Retrievers | L 60–84 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Vermont Catamounts | L 64–66 | – | – | matchup |
Merrimack Warriors
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Merrimack Warriors | W 63–49 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Siena Saints | L 54–64 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Marist Red Foxes | W 58–57 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Sacred Heart Pioneers | W 70–48 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Niagara Purple Eagles | W 73–66 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merrimack Warriors at UMass Lowell River Hawks | 74–81 | – | – | matchup | |
| UMass Lowell River Hawks at Merrimack Warriors | 68–74 | – | – | matchup | |
| Merrimack Warriors at UMass Lowell River Hawks | 51–77 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
UMass Lowell River Hawks: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Merrimack Warriors: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- River Hawks1-0 4th · W1
- River Hawks rating1463 237th of 361, 0 games
- Warriors0-1 6th · L1
- Warriors rating1553 86th of 361, 1 games
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 4th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $UMLMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the UMass Lowell River Hawks bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 6th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $MRMKMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Merrimack Warriors bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on UMass Lowell River Hawks at Merrimack Warriors
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Model: Merrimack 76% to win. Projected score Merrimack 77, UMass Lowell 68; spread Merrimack −9, total 145.5. UMass Lowell River Hawks at Merrimack Warriors, Thu, Nov 5, 7:00 PM ET.