App State Mountaineers lead Merrimack Warriors 2-0 with 18:52 left in the first, the only score on the board. The forecast still has App State at 46% at home, so the scoreboard and the forecast point in different directions this early.
NCAA Men's Basketball · · George M. Holmes Convocation Center · every NCAA Division I men's basketball line
Merrimack Warriors vs App State Mountaineers: final score and how the prediction did, November 2, 2026
- Final scoreMerrimack 49, App State 63 the projected winner lost
- Pregame Projected winnerMerrimack 54%
- Model spreadeven total 145.5
- Margin14
- Total112 projected 145.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Merrimack Warriors or App State Mountaineers: the bandwagon
Axle 54–46Market –
FinalPregame: APP 46%Baseline: APP 93.6% (+47.9)Big swing: 16.8 ptsClutch window: none
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| MRMK | 21 | 28 | 49 |
| APP | 43 | 20 | 63 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
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Merrimack Warriors at App State Mountaineers win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+0.0 points for APP over the last 5:00
Big swing16.8 ptstoward APP at 2:43 of game time
Clutch windowNonenever within 5 points in the final half
BaselineAPP 93.6%game average, +47.9 points from the pregame 45.7%
Merrimack Warriors vs App State Mountaineers live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | MRMK | APP |
|---|---|---|
| Field goals | MRMK19/54 | APP21/50 |
| 3-pointers | MRMK5/18 | APP8/30 |
| Free throws | MRMK6/12 | APP13/20 |
| Rebounds | MRMK30 | APP42 |
| Assists | MRMK7 | APP15 |
| Turnovers | MRMK10 | APP14 |
| Steals | MRMK9 | APP6 |
| Blocks | MRMK3 | APP2 |
| Points in the paint | MRMK26 | APP18 |
| Fast-break points | MRMK7 | APP9 |
| Fouls | MRMK13 | APP12 |
| Largest lead | MRMK0 | APP23 |
Merrimack Warriors vs App State Mountaineers team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | MRMK | APP |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MRMK49 | APP63 |
| Average win probability | MRMK6% | APP94% |
| Longest scoring run | MRMK+7 | APP+8 |
| Time leading | MRMK0:00 | APP38:10 |
Merrimack Warriors vs App State Mountaineers odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 2, 5:25 AM ET
Warriors54%
Win chanceMountaineers46%
SpreadPKclosing model spread
Total145.5
Moneyline−119away / +119homeaway / home
Line movementAPP win chance, 11 stored lines
−4 pts for APP between Oct 29 and Nov 2
66%40%
Oct 29Oct 31Nov 2
Every stored line
| Stored | APP win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 5:25 AM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:25 AM ET | 46% | −14 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 60% | +14 |
| Nov 2, 2:05 AM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 12:08 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 9:59 AM ET | 46% | −14 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 60% | +5 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 55% | +5 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 50% | — |
- Ratings
- APP 1526 · MRMK 1577
- Home spread
- PK · neutral site, no home advantage
- Stored
- Nov 2, 5:25 AM ET · 2026-11-02 10:25 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
- Last move
- spread −4 → PK, home 60% → 46%
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Merrimack Warriors 49, App State Mountaineers 63. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage used · none: neutral sitethe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule unavailable for this game · First game of a season for at least one siderest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · Neutral sitedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
WarriorsMountaineers
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WarriorsMountaineers
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Mountaineers–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Merrimack Warriors vs App State Mountaineers prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Warriors the favorite, with a 54% chance to win; its spread rounds to even. The model total is 145.5. Ratings: Mountaineers 1550 (89th of 361), Warriors 1553 (86th). The Mountaineers are 1-0; the Warriors are 0-1. The Mountaineers have won 1 of their last 5; the Warriors 4 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Merrimack Warriors
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Merrimack Warriors | W 63–49 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Siena Saints | L 54–64 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Marist Red Foxes | W 58–57 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Sacred Heart Pioneers | W 70–48 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Niagara Purple Eagles | W 73–66 | – | – | matchup |
App State Mountaineers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at App State Mountaineers | L 49–63 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Southern Miss Golden Eagles | L 73–86 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Texas State Bobcats | L 57–60 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Georgia Southern Eagles | W 89–74 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Marshall Thundering Herd | L 93–94 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Merrimack Warriors: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
App State Mountaineers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Warriors0-1 6th · L1
- Warriors rating1553 86th of 361, 1 games
- Mountaineers1-0 1st · W1
- Mountaineers rating1550 89th of 361, 1 games
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 6th · streak L1
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No stances yet today on $MRMKMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Merrimack Warriors bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 1st · streak W1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $APPMBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $APPMBB
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No stances yet today on $APPMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the App State Mountaineers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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