Minnesota Timberwolves vs New Orleans Pelicans prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerTimberwolves 67%
- Projected scoreTimberwolves 118, Pelicans 114
- Model spreadTimberwolves −3.5 total 232
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Minnesota Timberwolves or New Orleans Pelicans: the bandwagon
Axle 67–33Market 59–41
Minnesota Timberwolves at New Orleans Pelicans win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs New Orleans Pelicans live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs New Orleans Pelicans team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | MIN | NO |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MIN– | NO– |
| Average win probability | MIN– | NO– |
| Longest scoring run | MIN– | NO– |
| Time leading | MIN– | NO– |
Minnesota Timberwolves vs New Orleans Pelicans model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | NO win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:59 AM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:39 AM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:35 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:09 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:04 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:41 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:32 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:12 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:07 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:02 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:36 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 11:00 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 6:07 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 33% | −1 |
| Oct 31, 10:31 PM ET | 34% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 9:36 PM ET | 33% | +2 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 10:26 PM ET | 31% | −1 |
| Oct 30, 9:36 PM ET | 32% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 32% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 32% | +6 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 2:00 AM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:06 AM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:41 AM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:09 AM ET | 26% | +1 |
| Oct 28, 11:54 PM ET | 25% | −1 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 26% | — |
- Ratings
- NO 1422 · MIN 1614
- Home spread
- +3.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In National Basketball Association a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past National Basketball Association seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries in the data, not usedplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores · read Nov 4, 9:30 AM UTC
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Timberwolves vs Pelicans odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NBA marketKalshi prices the Timberwolves at 60%, Polymarket at 59% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 67%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | MIN | NO | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 60% | 40% | ||
| Polymarket | 59% | 41% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 67% | 33% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Minnesota Timberwolves vs New Orleans Pelicans prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Timberwolves a 3.5-point favorite, with a 67% chance to win. The model total is 232. Ratings: Pelicans 1422 (21st of 30), Timberwolves 1614 (7th). The Pelicans are 3-4 in the Southwest; the Timberwolves are 5-3 in the Northwest. The Pelicans have won 3 of their last 5; the Timberwolves 2 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Pelicans won 2, the Timberwolves 4.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Minnesota Timberwolves
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Milwaukee Bucks | W 112–100 | – | – | matchup | |
| at San Antonio Spurs | L 111–121 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs LA Clippers | W 127–101 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Golden State Warriors | L 114–119 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Cleveland Cavaliers | L 125–127 | – | – | matchup |
New Orleans Pelicans
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Memphis Grizzlies | W 135–134 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Atlanta Hawks | W 121–99 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Sacramento Kings | W 132–120 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Denver Nuggets | L 91–104 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Denver Nuggets | L 135–141 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Pelicans at Minnesota Timberwolves | 126–132 | – | – | matchup | |
| New Orleans Pelicans at Minnesota Timberwolves | 119–115 | – | – | matchup | |
| Minnesota Timberwolves at New Orleans Pelicans | 125–116 | – | – | matchup | |
| Minnesota Timberwolves at New Orleans Pelicans | 149–142 | – | – | matchup | |
| New Orleans Pelicans at Minnesota Timberwolves | 93–134 | – | – | matchup | |
| New Orleans Pelicans at Minnesota Timberwolves | 119–115 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Minnesota Timberwolves: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
New Orleans Pelicans: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Timberwolves5-3 Northwest, 3rd · W1
- Timberwolves rating1614 7th of 30, 8 games
- Pelicans3-4 Southwest, 1st · W3
- Pelicans rating1422 21st of 30, 7 games
National Basketball Association · Northwest · 3rd · streak W1
No stances yet today on $TIMBERWOLVES: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Minnesota Timberwolves bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
National Basketball Association · Southwest · 1st · streak W3
No stances yet today on $PELICANS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the New Orleans Pelicans bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: Timberwolves 67% to win. Projected score Timberwolves 118, Pelicans 114; spread Timberwolves −3.5, total 232. Kalshi 60%, Polymarket 59% for the Timberwolves. Minnesota Timberwolves at New Orleans Pelicans, Fri, Nov 6, 8:00 PM ET.