Denver Nuggets vs Indiana Pacers prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerNuggets 78%
- Projected scoreNuggets 117, Pacers 110
- Model spreadNuggets −7.5 total 227.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Denver Nuggets or Indiana Pacers: the bandwagon
Axle 78–22Market 74–26
Denver Nuggets at Indiana Pacers win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Denver Nuggets vs Indiana Pacers live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Denver Nuggets vs Indiana Pacers team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | DEN | IND |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DEN– | IND– |
| Average win probability | DEN– | IND– |
| Longest scoring run | DEN– | IND– |
| Time leading | DEN– | IND– |
Denver Nuggets vs Indiana Pacers model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | IND win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 11:11 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 11:11 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 10:26 PM ET | 22% | +1 |
| Nov 4, 10:21 PM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 9:30 PM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:59 AM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:54 AM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:39 AM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:35 PM ET | 21% | +2 |
| Nov 2, 11:09 PM ET | 19% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:04 PM ET | 19% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:41 PM ET | 19% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:32 PM ET | 19% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:12 PM ET | 19% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:02 PM ET | 19% | −1 |
| Nov 2, 9:57 PM ET | 20% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:36 PM ET | 20% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 20% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 20% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 11:40 PM ET | 20% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 11:00 PM ET | 20% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 7:51 PM ET | 20% | −1 |
| Nov 1, 6:07 PM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 21% | +2 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 19% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 12:36 AM ET | 19% | −1 |
| Oct 30, 10:41 PM ET | 20% | −1 |
| Oct 30, 10:26 PM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 9:36 PM ET | 21% | +1 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 20% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 20% | +6 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 14% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 14% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 2:00 AM ET | 14% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:06 AM ET | 14% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:41 AM ET | 14% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:09 AM ET | 14% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:54 PM ET | 14% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 14% | — |
- Ratings
- IND 1321 · DEN 1575
- Home spread
- +7.5 · neutral site, no home advantage
- Stored
- Nov 4, 11:11 PM ET · 2026-11-05 04:11 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In National Basketball Association a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past National Basketball Association seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage used · none: neutral sitethe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries in the data, not usedplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores · read Nov 4, 9:30 AM UTC
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · Neutral sitedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Nuggets vs Pacers odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NBA marketKalshi prices the Nuggets at 74%, Polymarket at 74%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 78%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | DEN | IND | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 74% | 26% | ||
| Polymarket | 74% | 26% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 78% | 22% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Denver Nuggets vs Indiana Pacers prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Nuggets a 7.5-point favorite, with a 78% chance to win. The model total is 227.5. Ratings: Pacers 1308 (28th of 30), Nuggets 1575 (11th). The Pacers are 2-6 in the Central; the Nuggets are 3-3 in the Northwest. The Pacers have won 1 of their last 5; the Nuggets 3 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Pacers won 1, the Nuggets 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Denver Nuggets
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Portland Trail Blazers | L 110–118 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Phoenix Suns | W 127–120 | – | – | matchup | |
| at New Orleans Pelicans | W 104–91 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Golden State Warriors | L 114–134 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New Orleans Pelicans | W 141–135 | – | – | matchup |
Indiana Pacers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Memphis Grizzlies | W 107–103 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Atlanta Hawks | L 104–108 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Brooklyn Nets | L 90–98 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Miami Heat | L 125–145 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Philadelphia 76ers | L 109–114 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Nuggets at Indiana Pacers | 135–120 | – | – | matchup | |
| Indiana Pacers at Denver Nuggets | 100–117 | – | – | matchup | |
| Indiana Pacers at Denver Nuggets | 125–120 | – | – | matchup | |
| Denver Nuggets at Indiana Pacers | 125–116 | – | – | matchup | |
| Denver Nuggets at Indiana Pacers | 114–109 | – | – | matchup | |
| Indiana Pacers at Denver Nuggets | 109–117 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Denver Nuggets: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Indiana Pacers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Nuggets3-3 Northwest, 2nd · L1
- Nuggets rating1575 11th of 30, 6 games
- Pacers2-6 Central, 3rd · L5
- Pacers rating1308 28th of 30, 8 games
Denver Nuggets 3-3
National Basketball Association · Northwest · 2nd · streak L1
No stances yet today on $NUGGETS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Denver Nuggets bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Indiana Pacers 2-6
National Basketball Association · Central · 3rd · streak L5
No stances yet today on $PACERS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Indiana Pacers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Denver Nuggets at Indiana Pacers
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Model: Nuggets 78% to win. Projected score Nuggets 117, Pacers 110; spread Nuggets −7.5, total 227.5. Kalshi 74%, Polymarket 74% for the Nuggets. Denver Nuggets at Indiana Pacers, Sat, Nov 7, 5:00 PM ET.