Golden State Warriors vs San Antonio Spurs prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerSpurs 78%
- Projected scoreSpurs 119, Warriors 109
- Model spreadSpurs −10.5 total 228.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Golden State Warriors or San Antonio Spurs: the bandwagon
Axle 22–78Market 21–79
Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Golden State Warriors vs San Antonio Spurs live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Golden State Warriors vs San Antonio Spurs team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | GS | SA |
|---|---|---|
| Score | GS– | SA– |
| Average win probability | GS– | SA– |
| Longest scoring run | GS– | SA– |
| Time leading | GS– | SA– |
Golden State Warriors vs San Antonio Spurs model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | SA win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 10:26 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 10:26 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 10:21 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 10:00 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 9:30 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:59 AM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:54 AM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:39 AM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:35 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:09 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:41 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:12 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:07 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:02 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:57 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:36 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 11:40 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 11:00 PM ET | 78% | −1 |
| Nov 1, 7:51 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 6:07 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 79% | −1 |
| Oct 31, 10:36 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:31 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 80% | — |
- Ratings
- SA 1721 · GS 1497
- Home spread
- −10.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 10:26 PM ET · 2026-11-05 03:26 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In National Basketball Association a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past National Basketball Association seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Warriors vs Spurs odds on Polymarket
Every NBA marketPolymarket prices the Spurs at 79%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 78%.
Prices read: Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | GS | SA | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 21% | 79% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 22% | 78% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Golden State Warriors vs San Antonio Spurs prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Spurs a 10.5-point favorite at home, with a 78% chance to win. The model total is 228.5. Ratings: Spurs 1721 (1st of 30), Warriors 1497 (17th). The Spurs are 5-2 in the Southwest; the Warriors are 5-3 in the Pacific. The Spurs have won 5 of their last 5; the Warriors 5 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Spurs won 3, the Warriors 3.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Golden State Warriors
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Phoenix Suns | W 116–113 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs LA Clippers | W 124–112 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Los Angeles Lakers | W 112–95 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Minnesota Timberwolves | W 119–114 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Denver Nuggets | W 134–114 | – | – | matchup |
San Antonio Spurs
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Utah Jazz | W 119–97 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Minnesota Timberwolves | W 121–111 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Utah Jazz | W 117–111 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Sacramento Kings | W 130–103 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Dallas Mavericks | W 122–106 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Antonio Spurs at Golden State Warriors | 127–113 | – | – | matchup | |
| San Antonio Spurs at Golden State Warriors | 126–113 | – | – | matchup | |
| Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs | 109–108 | – | – | matchup | |
| Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs | 125–120 | – | – | matchup | |
| San Antonio Spurs at Golden State Warriors | 114–111 | – | – | matchup | |
| Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs | 148–106 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Golden State Warriors: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
San Antonio Spurs: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Warriors5-3 Pacific, 4th · W5
- Warriors rating1497 17th of 30, 8 games
- Spurs5-2 Southwest, 3rd · W5
- Spurs rating1721 1st of 30, 7 games
National Basketball Association · Pacific · 4th · streak W5
No stances yet today on $WARRIORS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Golden State Warriors bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
National Basketball Association · Southwest · 3rd · streak W5
No stances yet today on $SPURS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the San Antonio Spurs bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: Spurs 78% to win. Projected score Spurs 119, Warriors 109; spread Spurs −10.5, total 228.5. Polymarket 79% for the Spurs. Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs, Fri, Nov 13, 9:30 PM ET.