Cleveland Cavaliers vs Miami Heat prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerCavaliers 55%
- Model spreadeven total 234.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Cleveland Cavaliers or Miami Heat: the bandwagon
Axle 55–45Market 51–49
Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Miami Heat live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Miami Heat team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | CLE | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CLE– | MIA– |
| Average win probability | CLE– | MIA– |
| Longest scoring run | CLE– | MIA– |
| Time leading | CLE– | MIA– |
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Miami Heat model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | MIA win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 11:46 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 11:46 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 11:36 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 11:11 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 10:36 PM ET | 45% | +1 |
| Nov 4, 10:26 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 9:30 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:59 AM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:54 AM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:39 AM ET | 44% | −2 |
| Nov 2, 11:35 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:32 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:02 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:57 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:36 PM ET | 46% | +2 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 11:40 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 6:07 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 44% | −1 |
| Oct 31, 10:21 PM ET | 45% | −1 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 46% | — |
- Ratings
- MIA 1481 · CLE 1575
- Home spread
- PK
- Stored
- Nov 4, 11:46 PM ET · 2026-11-05 04:46 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In National Basketball Association a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past National Basketball Association seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Cavaliers vs Heat odds on Polymarket
Every NBA marketPolymarket prices the Cavaliers at 51%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 55%.
Prices read: Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | CLE | MIA | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 51% | 49% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 55% | 45% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Miami Heat prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Cavaliers the favorite, with a 55% chance to win; its spread rounds to even. The model total is 234.5. Ratings: Heat 1481 (19th of 30), Cavaliers 1580 (10th). The Heat are 2-5 in the Southeast; the Cavaliers are 4-3 in the Central. The Heat have won 2 of their last 5; the Cavaliers 2 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Heat won 2, the Cavaliers 4.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Cleveland Cavaliers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Oklahoma City Thunder | L 116–124 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Oklahoma City Thunder | L 112–117 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Milwaukee Bucks | W 136–111 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Atlanta Hawks | L 111–114 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Washington Wizards | W 121–111 | – | – | matchup |
Miami Heat
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Los Angeles Lakers | L 117–138 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Indiana Pacers | W 145–125 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Atlanta Hawks | W 129–117 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Dallas Mavericks | L 109–113 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Charlotte Hornets | L 110–115 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Heat at Cleveland Cavaliers | 128–149 | – | – | matchup | |
| Miami Heat at Cleveland Cavaliers | 120–103 | – | – | matchup | |
| Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat | 130–116 | – | – | matchup | |
| Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat | 138–140 | – | – | matchup | |
| Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat | 138–83 | – | – | matchup | |
| Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat | 124–87 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Cleveland Cavaliers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Miami Heat: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Cavaliers4-3 Central, 4th · L1
- Cavaliers rating1580 10th of 30, 7 games
- Heat2-5 Southeast, 1st · L1
- Heat rating1481 19th of 30, 7 games
National Basketball Association · Central · 4th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $CAVALIERS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Cleveland Cavaliers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Miami Heat 2-5
National Basketball Association · Southeast · 1st · streak L1
No stances yet today on $HEAT: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Miami Heat bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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