Indiana Pacers vs Dallas Mavericks prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerMavericks 59%
- Projected scoreMavericks 115, Pacers 111
- Model spreadMavericks −4 total 226.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Indiana Pacers or Dallas Mavericks: the bandwagon
Axle 41–59Market 48–52
Indiana Pacers at Dallas Mavericks win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Indiana Pacers vs Dallas Mavericks live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Indiana Pacers vs Dallas Mavericks team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | IND | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Score | IND– | DAL– |
| Average win probability | IND– | DAL– |
| Longest scoring run | IND– | DAL– |
| Time leading | IND– | DAL– |
Indiana Pacers vs Dallas Mavericks model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | DAL win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 11:11 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 11:11 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 11:06 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 10:36 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 10:26 PM ET | 59% | −1 |
| Nov 4, 10:21 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 10:00 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:59 AM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:54 AM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:39 AM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:35 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:04 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:41 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:32 PM ET | 60% | −4 |
| Nov 2, 10:12 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:07 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:02 PM ET | 64% | +1 |
| Nov 2, 9:57 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:36 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 11:40 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 11:00 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 7:51 PM ET | 63% | +2 |
| Nov 1, 6:07 PM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 61% | −7 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 10:51 PM ET | 68% | +1 |
| Oct 30, 10:41 PM ET | 67% | +1 |
| Oct 30, 10:26 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 9:36 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 66% | −2 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 2:00 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:06 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:41 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:09 AM ET | 68% | +5 |
| Oct 28, 11:54 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 63% | — |
- Ratings
- DAL 1411 · IND 1321
- Home spread
- −4
- Stored
- Nov 4, 11:11 PM ET · 2026-11-05 04:11 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In National Basketball Association a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past National Basketball Association seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · A previous venue or its coordinates is not storeddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Pacers vs Mavericks odds on Polymarket
Every NBA marketPolymarket prices the Mavericks at 52%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 59%.
Prices read: Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | IND | DAL | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 48% | 52% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 41% | 59% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Indiana Pacers vs Dallas Mavericks prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Mavericks a 4-point favorite at home, with a 59% chance to win. The model total is 226.5. Ratings: Mavericks 1411 (22nd of 30), Pacers 1308 (28th). The Mavericks are 4-3 in the Southwest; the Pacers are 2-6 in the Central. The Mavericks have won 3 of their last 5; the Pacers 1 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Mavericks won 3, the Pacers 3.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Indiana Pacers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Memphis Grizzlies | W 107–103 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Atlanta Hawks | L 104–108 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Brooklyn Nets | L 90–98 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Miami Heat | L 125–145 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Philadelphia 76ers | L 109–114 | – | – | matchup |
Dallas Mavericks
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Sacramento Kings | L 100–115 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Houston Rockets | W 116–111 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Oklahoma City Thunder | W 120–96 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Miami Heat | W 113–109 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs San Antonio Spurs | L 106–122 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Mavericks at Indiana Pacers | 121–105 | – | – | matchup | |
| Dallas Mavericks at Indiana Pacers | 134–130 | – | – | matchup | |
| Indiana Pacers at Dallas Mavericks | 105–107 | – | – | matchup | |
| Dallas Mavericks at Indiana Pacers | 131–135 | – | – | matchup | |
| Indiana Pacers at Dallas Mavericks | 134–127 | – | – | matchup | |
| Indiana Pacers at Dallas Mavericks | 137–120 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Indiana Pacers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Dallas Mavericks: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Pacers2-6 Central, 3rd · L5
- Pacers rating1308 28th of 30, 8 games
- Mavericks4-3 Southwest, 2nd · L1
- Mavericks rating1411 22nd of 30, 7 games
Indiana Pacers 2-6
National Basketball Association · Central · 3rd · streak L5
No stances yet today on $PACERS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Indiana Pacers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Dallas Mavericks 4-3
National Basketball Association · Southwest · 2nd · streak L1
No stances yet today on $MAVERICKS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Dallas Mavericks bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: Mavericks 59% to win. Projected score Mavericks 115, Pacers 111; spread Mavericks −4, total 226.5. Polymarket 52% for the Mavericks. Indiana Pacers at Dallas Mavericks, Mon, Nov 9, 8:00 PM ET.