Houston Rockets vs Washington Wizards prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerRockets 79%
- Projected scoreRockets 116, Wizards 108
- Model spreadRockets −8 total 224
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Houston Rockets or Washington Wizards: the bandwagon
Axle 79–21Market 68–32
Houston Rockets at Washington Wizards win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Houston Rockets vs Washington Wizards live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Houston Rockets vs Washington Wizards team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | HOU | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Score | HOU– | WSH– |
| Average win probability | HOU– | WSH– |
| Longest scoring run | HOU– | WSH– |
| Time leading | HOU– | WSH– |
Houston Rockets vs Washington Wizards model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | WSH win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 9:30 PM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 9:30 PM ET | 21% | −1 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:59 AM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:54 AM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:09 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:04 PM ET | 22% | −1 |
| Nov 2, 10:41 PM ET | 23% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:32 PM ET | 23% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:07 PM ET | 23% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:02 PM ET | 23% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:57 PM ET | 23% | +2 |
| Nov 2, 9:36 PM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 21% | — |
- Ratings
- WSH 1301 · HOU 1652
- Home spread
- +8
- Stored
- Nov 4, 9:30 PM ET · 2026-11-05 02:30 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
- Last move
- spread +7.5 → +8, home 22% → 21%
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In National Basketball Association a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past National Basketball Association seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Rockets vs Wizards odds on Polymarket
Every NBA marketPolymarket prices the Rockets at 68%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 79%.
Prices read: Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | HOU | WSH | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 68% | 32% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 79% | 21% | · model 2.0 |
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Houston Rockets vs Washington Wizards prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Rockets a 8-point favorite, with a 79% chance to win. The model total is 224. Ratings: Wizards 1313 (27th of 30), Rockets 1652 (5th). The Wizards are 4-3 in the Southeast; the Rockets are 7-1 in the Southwest. The Wizards have won 2 of their last 5; the Rockets 4 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Wizards won 0, the Rockets 6.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Houston Rockets
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Boston Celtics | W 109–93 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Oklahoma City Thunder | W 119–98 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Dallas Mavericks | L 111–116 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Milwaukee Bucks | W 132–100 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Atlanta Hawks | W 120–110 | – | – | matchup |
Washington Wizards
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Atlanta Hawks | L 105–120 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Orlando Magic | W 103–94 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Charlotte Hornets | W 95–79 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Cleveland Cavaliers | L 111–121 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Charlotte Hornets | L 103–110 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Rockets at Washington Wizards | 123–118 | – | – | matchup | |
| Washington Wizards at Houston Rockets | 112–135 | – | – | matchup | |
| Houston Rockets at Washington Wizards | 135–112 | – | – | matchup | |
| Washington Wizards at Houston Rockets | 92–107 | – | – | matchup | |
| Houston Rockets at Washington Wizards | 137–114 | – | – | matchup | |
| Washington Wizards at Houston Rockets | 119–135 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Houston Rockets: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Washington Wizards: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Rockets7-1 Southwest, 5th · W2
- Rockets rating1652 5th of 30, 8 games
- Wizards4-3 Southeast, 5th · W2
- Wizards rating1313 27th of 30, 7 games
Houston Rockets 7-1
National Basketball Association · Southwest · 5th · streak W2
No stances yet today on $ROCKETS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Houston Rockets bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
National Basketball Association · Southeast · 5th · streak W2
No stances yet today on $WIZARDS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Washington Wizards bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Houston Rockets at Washington Wizards
Sign in to post a take on $ROCKETSWIZARDS261116: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
No takes on this game yet. Yours goes first.
Model: Rockets 79% to win. Projected score Rockets 116, Wizards 108; spread Rockets −8, total 224. Polymarket 68% for the Rockets. Houston Rockets at Washington Wizards, Sun, Nov 15, 7:00 PM ET.