Hornets lead 13-11 five minutes into the first, and the early margin is only two points. The Wizards have not been able to reach the rim yet, and the model has them at 23 percent for now.
NBA · · Capital One Arena · every National Basketball Association line
Charlotte Hornets vs Washington Wizards: final score and how the prediction did, October 30, 2026
- Final scoreHornets 79, Wizards 95 the projected winner lost
- Pregame Projected winnerHornets 77%
- Pregame Projected scoreHornets 115, Wizards 109
- Model spreadHornets −6.5 total 224
- Margin16 projected 6.5
- Total174 projected 224
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Charlotte Hornets or Washington Wizards: the bandwagon
Axle 77–23Market 53–47
FinalPregame: WSH 23%Baseline: WSH 60.3% (+36.9)Big swing: 18.4 ptsClutch window: none
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHA | 26 | 20 | 13 | 20 | 79 |
| WSH | 22 | 29 | 28 | 16 | 95 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
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Charlotte Hornets at Washington Wizards win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+0.0 points for WSH over the last 5:00
Big swing18.4 ptstoward WSH at 25:22 of game time
Clutch windowNonenever within 5 points in the final quarter
BaselineWSH 60.3%game average, +36.9 points from the pregame 23.4%
Charlotte Hornets vs Washington Wizards live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | CHA | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Field goals | CHA30/101 | WSH28/73 |
| 3-pointers | CHA12/56 | WSH10/30 |
| Free throws | CHA7/12 | WSH29/35 |
| Rebounds | CHA55 | WSH53 |
| Assists | CHA22 | WSH18 |
| Turnovers | CHA12 | WSH15 |
| Steals | CHA12 | WSH6 |
| Blocks | CHA1 | WSH4 |
| Points in the paint | CHA28 | WSH28 |
| Fast-break points | CHA7 | WSH11 |
| Fouls | CHA27 | WSH17 |
| Largest lead | CHA10 | WSH25 |
Charlotte Hornets vs Washington Wizards team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | CHA | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CHA79 | WSH95 |
| Average win probability | CHA40% | WSH60% |
| Longest scoring run | CHA+5 | WSH+9 |
| Time leading | CHA13:13 | WSH30:21 |
Charlotte Hornets vs Washington Wizards model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET
Hornets77%
Win chanceWizards23%
SpreadCHA −6.5closing model spread
Total224
Moneyline−328away / +328homeaway / home
Line movementWSH win chance, 12 stored lines
−27 pts for WSH between Oct 28 and Oct 30
55%11%
Oct 28Oct 30
Every stored line
| Stored | WSH win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 23% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 23% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 23% | +6 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 17% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 17% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 2:00 AM ET | 17% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:06 AM ET | 17% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:41 AM ET | 17% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:09 AM ET | 17% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:54 PM ET | 17% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 17% | −33 |
| Oct 28, 10:45 PM ET | 50% | — |
- Ratings
- WSH 1261 · CHA 1564
- Home spread
- +6.5
- Stored
- Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET · 2026-10-30 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Charlotte Hornets 79, Washington Wizards 95. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In National Basketball Association a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries in the data, not usedplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores · read Oct 29, 10:38 PM UTC
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · 1 pick
Be the first on the bandwagon
HornetsWizards
Neutrals only–
HornetsWizards
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Wizards–
1 pick so far; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Hornets vs Wizards odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NBA marketKalshi had the Hornets at 53% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 53% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 77% when last read, .
| Source | CHA | WSH | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 53% | 47% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 53% | 47% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 77% | 23% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, WSH: +24Polymarket minus model, WSH: +24
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Charlotte Hornets vs Washington Wizards prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Hornets a 6.5-point favorite, with a 77% chance to win. The model total is 224. Ratings: Wizards 1301 (28th of 30), Hornets 1483 (18th). The Wizards are 4-3 in the Southeast; the Hornets are 3-5 in the Southeast. The Wizards have won 2 of their last 5; the Hornets 0 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Wizards won 1, the Hornets 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Charlotte Hornets
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Brooklyn Nets | L 104–114 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Detroit Pistons | L 91–124 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Philadelphia 76ers | L 104–109 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Washington Wizards | L 79–95 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Detroit Pistons | L 89–97 | – | – | matchup |
Washington Wizards
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Atlanta Hawks | L 105–120 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Orlando Magic | W 103–94 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Charlotte Hornets | W 95–79 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Cleveland Cavaliers | L 111–121 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Charlotte Hornets | L 103–110 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Wizards at Charlotte Hornets | 103–110 | – | – | matchup | |
| Charlotte Hornets at Washington Wizards | 129–112 | – | – | matchup | |
| Washington Wizards at Charlotte Hornets | 115–119 | – | – | matchup | |
| Washington Wizards at Charlotte Hornets | 109–126 | – | – | matchup | |
| Charlotte Hornets at Washington Wizards | 139–113 | – | – | matchup | |
| Washington Wizards at Charlotte Hornets | 113–100 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Charlotte Hornets: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Washington Wizards: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Hornets3-5 Southeast, 3rd · L4
- Hornets rating1483 18th of 30, 9 games
- Wizards4-3 Southeast, 5th · W2
- Wizards rating1301 28th of 30, 8 games
National Basketball Association · Southeast · 3rd · streak L4
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $HORNETS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $HORNETS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $HORNETS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $HORNETS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Charlotte Hornets bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
National Basketball Association · Southeast · 5th · streak W2
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $WIZARDS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $WIZARDS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $WIZARDS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $WIZARDS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Washington Wizards bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Charlotte Hornets at Washington Wizards
Sign in to post a take on $HORNETSWIZARDS261030: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
Final: Hornets 79, Wizards 95. Bandwagon's model had the Hornets at 77% and projected Hornets 115, Wizards 109; spread Hornets −6.5, total 224. Last read: Kalshi 53%, Polymarket 53% for the Hornets.