La Liga prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Games with a market price, beside the model. Futures · model lines
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
La Liga prediction market odds Friday, November 6
1 game| Game | Kick (ET) | Kalshi away · home | Polymarket away · home | Bandwagon model away · home | Bandwagon away · home | Gap market − model | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALA at SEV Alavés at Sevilla | 23 · 50 draw 28 Kalshi · | 22 · 49 draw 28 Polymarket · | 24 · 49 model 2.0 | – | +1 SEV, Kalshi | Matchup |
La Liga prediction market odds Saturday, November 7
4 games| Game | Kick (ET) | Kalshi away · home | Polymarket away · home | Bandwagon model away · home | Bandwagon away · home | Gap market − model | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATH at OSA Athletic Club at Osasuna | 46 · 27 draw 28 Kalshi · | 46 · 26 draw 27 Polymarket · | 40 · 32 model 2.0 | – | −5 OSA, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| RMA at VAL Real Madrid at Valencia | 75 · 10 draw 14 Kalshi · | 75 · 10 draw 15 Polymarket · | 65 · 14 model 2.0 | – | −3 VAL, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| DEP at ESP Deportivo at Espanyol | 30 · 42 draw 29 Kalshi · | 29 · 41 draw 29 Polymarket · | 29 · 43 model 2.0 | – | −1 ESP, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| RAC at MCF Racing Santander at Málaga | 34 · 40 draw 27 Kalshi · | 34 · 40 draw 27 Polymarket · | 30 · 41 model 2.0 | – | −1 MCF, Kalshi | Matchup |
La Liga prediction market odds Sunday, November 8
5 games| Game | Kick (ET) | Kalshi away · home | Polymarket away · home | Bandwagon model away · home | Bandwagon away · home | Gap market − model | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAY at RSO Rayo Vallecano at Real Sociedad | 20 · 57 draw 23 Kalshi · | 20 · 57 draw 22 Polymarket · | 25 · 47 model 2.0 | – | +10 RSO, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| GET at VIL Getafe at Villarreal | 12 · 67 draw 20 Kalshi · | 12 · 68 draw 21 Polymarket · | 16 · 61 model 2.0 | – | +6 VIL, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| BAR at ATM Barcelona at Atlético Madrid | 53 · 26 draw 20 Kalshi · | 53 · 26 draw 22 Polymarket · | 48 · 25 model 2.0 | – | +2 ATM, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| LEV at CEL Levante at Celta Vigo | 21 · 54 draw 24 Kalshi · | 22 · 53 draw 25 Polymarket · | 21 · 54 model 2.0 | – | +1 CEL, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| BET at ELC Real Betis at Elche | 47 · 29 draw 25 Kalshi · | 47 · 28 draw 25 Polymarket · | 43 · 28 model 2.0 | – | 0 ELC, Kalshi | Matchup |
La Liga title odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
All teams| Team | Kalshi | Polymarket | Axle rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 68% | 68% | #1 |
| Real Madrid | 26% | 25% | #2 |
| Atlético Madrid | 5.5% | 4.2% | #3 |
| Alavés | 0.5% | 0.2% | #16 |
| Athletic Club | 0.5% | 0.1% | #7 |
| Celta Vigo | 0.5% | 0.1% | #9 |
| Deportivo | 0.5% | 0.1% | #12 |
| Elche | 0.5% | 0.1% | #13 |
La Liga: market versus model record
No record yet. A game is scored once it is final and has both a market price from the day before it and a model line; the scorer runs every night, and the first rows appear when the first such games finish.
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Kalshi and Polymarket prices for upcoming La Liga games and the season, next to Bandwagon's model and the crowd's picks, with the record of who was right. Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers.