Rayo Vallecano vs Real Sociedad prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerReal Sociedad 47%
- Projected scoreReal Sociedad 2.0, Rayo Vallecano 1.5
- Model spreadReal Sociedad −0.5 total 3.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Rayo Vallecano or Real Sociedad: the bandwagon
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Axle 25–47Market 20–57
Rayo Vallecano at Real Sociedad win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Rayo Vallecano vs Real Sociedad live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Rayo Vallecano vs Real Sociedad team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | RAY | RSO |
|---|---|---|
| Score | RAY– | RSO– |
| Average win probability | RAY– | RSO– |
| Longest scoring run | RAY– | RSO– |
| Time leading | RAY– | RSO– |
Rayo Vallecano vs Real Sociedad model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | RSO win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:04 PM ET | 47% | −2 |
| Nov 1, 2:28 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 10:04 AM ET | 49% | +1 |
| Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 1:16 PM ET | 48% | −3 |
| Oct 31, 10:56 AM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 5:55 PM ET | 51% | −1 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 52% | −6 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 58% | — |
- Ratings
- RSO 1446 · RAY 1436
- Home spread
- −0.5
- Stored
- Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET · 2026-11-05 10:04 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In La Liga a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 5, 10:03 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Rayo Vallecano vs Real Sociedad odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every La Liga marketKalshi prices Real Sociedad at 57%, Polymarket at 57%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 47%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | RAY | Draw | RSO | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 20% | 23% | 57% | ||
| Polymarket | 21% | 22% | 57% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 25% | 28% | 47% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Rayo Vallecano vs Real Sociedad prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Real Sociedad a 0.5-point favorite at home, with a 47% chance to win and a 28% chance of a draw. The model total is 3.5. Ratings: Real Sociedad 1446 (6th of 20), Rayo Vallecano 1436 (8th). The Real Sociedad are 6-4-1; the Rayo Vallecano are 3-4-3. The Real Sociedad have won 4 of their last 5; the Rayo Vallecano 2 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Real Sociedad won 0, the Rayo Vallecano 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Rayo Vallecano
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Celta Vigo | W 3–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Elche | L 0–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Getafe | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Osasuna | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Espanyol | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup |
Real Sociedad
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad at Rayo Vallecano | 3–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Rayo Vallecano at Real Sociedad | 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Real Sociedad at Rayo Vallecano | 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Rayo Vallecano at Real Sociedad | 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Rayo Vallecano at Real Sociedad | 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Real Sociedad at Rayo Vallecano | 2–2 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Rayo Vallecano: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Real Sociedad: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Rayo Vallecano3-4-3 12th
- Rayo Vallecano rating1436 8th of 20, 10 games
- Real Sociedad6-4-1 5th
- Real Sociedad rating1446 6th of 20, 11 games
Rayo Vallecano 3-4-3
La Liga · 12th
No stances yet today on $RAYO: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Rayo Vallecano bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Real Sociedad 6-4-1
La Liga · 5th
No stances yet today on $REALSOCIEDAD: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Real Sociedad bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Rayo Vallecano at Real Sociedad
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Model: Real Sociedad 47% to win, draw 28%. Projected score Real Sociedad 2.0, Rayo Vallecano 1.5; spread Real Sociedad −0.5, total 3.5. Kalshi 57%, Polymarket 57% for Real Sociedad. Rayo Vallecano at Real Sociedad, Sun, Nov 8, 10:15 AM ET.