Rayo Vallecano and Celta Vigo are level at 0-0 in the 18th minute. The model has Rayo at 40 percent, so the numbers lean toward Celta, and no fans have posted a pick yet.
LaLiga · · Campo de Fútbol de Vallecas · every La Liga line
Celta Vigo vs Rayo Vallecano: final score and how the prediction did, October 31, 2026
- Final scoreCelta Vigo 0, Rayo Vallecano 3 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerRayo Vallecano 40%
- Pregame Projected scorelevel, 1.3 each draw 29%
- Model spreadeven total 2.5
- Margin3 projected 0
- Total3 projected 2.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Celta Vigo or Rayo Vallecano: the bandwagon
Axle 31–40Market –
FinalPregame: RAY 54%Baseline: RAY 77.2% (+22.9)Big swing: 28.1 ptsClutch window: 12:00
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| CEL | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| RAY | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
CEL 47.2%RAY 52.8%
Celta Vigo at Rayo Vallecano win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+0.0 points for RAY over the last 10:00
Big swing28.1 ptstoward RAY at 37:00 of game time
Clutch window12:00within 1 goals in the final half
BaselineRAY 77.2%game average, +22.9 points from the pregame 54.4%
Celta Vigo vs Rayo Vallecano live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | CEL | RAY |
|---|---|---|
| Possession | CEL47.2% | RAY52.8% |
| Shots | CEL11 | RAY14 |
| Shots on target | CEL0 | RAY8 |
| Corners | CEL3 | RAY4 |
| Passes completed | CEL372/452 | RAY435/514 |
| Saves | CEL6 | RAY0 |
| Fouls | CEL16 | RAY11 |
| Offsides | CEL2 | RAY1 |
| Yellow cards | CEL1 | RAY2 |
| Red cards | CEL0 | RAY0 |
Celta Vigo vs Rayo Vallecano team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | CEL | RAY |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CEL0 | RAY3 |
| Average win probability | CEL23% | RAY77% |
| Longest scoring run | CEL+0 | RAY+3 |
| Time leading | CEL0:00 | RAY53:00 |
Celta Vigo vs Rayo Vallecano odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Oct 31, 10:56 AM ET
Celta Vigo31%
Win chanceRayo Vallecano40%
SpreadPKclosing model spread
Total2.5
Moneyline+222away / +244draw / +151homeaway / draw / home
Line movementRAY win chance, 8 stored lines
−2 pts for RAY between Oct 29 and Oct 31
47%34%
Oct 29Oct 30Oct 31
Every stored line
| Stored | RAY win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 10:56 AM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:56 AM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 5:55 PM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 40% | −2 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 42% | — |
- Ratings
- RAY 1419 · CEL 1450
- Home spread
- PK
- Stored
- Oct 31, 10:56 AM ET · 2026-10-31 14:56 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Celta Vigo 0, Rayo Vallecano 3. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In La Liga a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Oct 31, 11:30 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
Celta VigoRayo Vallecano
Neutrals only–
Celta VigoRayo Vallecano
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Rayo Vallecano–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Celta Vigo vs Rayo Vallecano prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Rayo Vallecano the favorite, with a 40% chance to win and a 29% chance of a draw; its spread rounds to even. The model total is 2.5. Ratings: Rayo Vallecano 1436 (8th of 20), Celta Vigo 1432 (9th). The Rayo Vallecano are 3-4-3; the Celta Vigo are 2-3-6. The Rayo Vallecano have won 2 of their last 5; the Celta Vigo 2 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Rayo Vallecano won 2, the Celta Vigo 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Celta Vigo
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Rayo Vallecano | L 0–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Real Betis | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Alavés | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Elche | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Racing Santander | W 5–0 | – | – | matchup |
Rayo Vallecano
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano at Celta Vigo | 0–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Celta Vigo at Rayo Vallecano | 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Rayo Vallecano at Celta Vigo | 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Celta Vigo at Rayo Vallecano | 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Rayo Vallecano at Celta Vigo | 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Celta Vigo at Rayo Vallecano | 0–0 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Celta Vigo: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Rayo Vallecano: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Celta Vigo2-3-6 10th
- Celta Vigo rating1432 9th of 20, 11 games
- Rayo Vallecano3-4-3 12th
- Rayo Vallecano rating1436 8th of 20, 10 games
Celta Vigo 2-3-6
La Liga · 10th
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $CELTAVIGO
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $CELTAVIGO
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $CELTAVIGO
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $CELTAVIGO: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Celta Vigo bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Rayo Vallecano 3-4-3
La Liga · 12th
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $RAYO
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $RAYO
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $RAYO
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $RAYO: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Rayo Vallecano bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Celta Vigo at Rayo Vallecano
Sign in to post a take on $CELTAVIGORAYO261031: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.