Athletic Club beat Real Sociedad 2-1 in the Basque derby, and the match is final. The model had Athletic at 42 percent, and no crowd picks were recorded, so the scoreline is the only signal here.
LaLiga · · San Mamés Stadium · every La Liga line
Real Sociedad vs Athletic Club: final score and how the prediction did, November 1, 2026
- Final scoreReal Sociedad 1, Athletic Club 2 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerAthletic Club 42%
- Pregame Projected scorelevel, 1.5 each draw 29%
- Model spreadeven total 3
- Margin1 projected 0
- Total3 projected 3
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Real Sociedad or Athletic Club: the bandwagon
Bandwagon
Be the first on the bandwagon
Axle 29–42Market –
FinalPregame: ATH 56%Baseline: ATH 78.2% (+21.8)Big swing: 29.3 ptsClutch window: 45:00
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSO | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| ATH | 2 | 0 | 2 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
RSO 61.7%ATH 38.3%
Real Sociedad at Athletic Club win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumSwinging to ATH+3.9 points for ATH over the last 10:00
Big swing29.3 ptstoward ATH at 45:00 of game time
Clutch window45:00within 1 goals in the final half
BaselineATH 78.2%game average, +21.8 points from the pregame 56.3%
Real Sociedad vs Athletic Club live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | RSO | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Possession | RSO61.7% | ATH38.3% |
| Shots | RSO14 | ATH13 |
| Shots on target | RSO5 | ATH3 |
| Corners | RSO8 | ATH5 |
| Passes completed | RSO509/591 | ATH306/366 |
| Saves | RSO1 | ATH4 |
| Fouls | RSO13 | ATH11 |
| Offsides | RSO2 | ATH0 |
| Yellow cards | RSO3 | ATH2 |
| Red cards | RSO0 | ATH0 |
Real Sociedad vs Athletic Club team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | RSO | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Score | RSO1 | ATH2 |
| Average win probability | RSO22% | ATH78% |
| Longest scoring run | RSO+1 | ATH+1 |
| Time leading | RSO0:00 | ATH63:00 |
Real Sociedad vs Athletic Club odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 1, 2:28 PM ET
Real Sociedad29%
Win chanceAthletic Club42%
SpreadPKclosing model spread
Total3
Moneyline+241away / +249draw / +138homeaway / draw / home
Line movementATH win chance, 12 stored lines
+3 pts for ATH between Oct 29 and Nov 1
48%34%
Oct 29Oct 30Nov 1
Every stored line
| Stored | ATH win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2:28 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 2:28 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 10:04 AM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 1:16 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:56 AM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 5:55 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 42% | +3 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 39% | — |
- Ratings
- ATH 1437 · RSO 1456
- Home spread
- PK
- Stored
- Nov 1, 2:28 PM ET · 2026-11-01 19:28 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Real Sociedad 1, Athletic Club 2. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In La Liga a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 1, 2:58 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
Real SociedadAthletic Club
Neutrals only–
Real SociedadAthletic Club
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Athletic Club–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Real Sociedad vs Athletic Club prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Athletic Club the favorite, with a 42% chance to win and a 29% chance of a draw; its spread rounds to even. The model total is 3. Ratings: Athletic Club 1446 (7th of 20), Real Sociedad 1446 (6th). The Athletic Club are 4-3-3; the Real Sociedad are 6-4-1. The Athletic Club have won 2 of their last 5; the Real Sociedad 4 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Athletic Club won 2, the Real Sociedad 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Real Sociedad
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Athletic Club | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Levante | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Málaga | W 5–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Deportivo | W 3–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Valencia | W 3–2 | – | – | matchup |
Athletic Club
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad at Athletic Club | 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Athletic Club at Real Sociedad | 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Athletic Club at Real Sociedad | 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Real Sociedad at Athletic Club | 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Real Sociedad at Athletic Club | 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Athletic Club at Real Sociedad | 0–3 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Real Sociedad: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Athletic Club: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Real Sociedad6-4-1 5th
- Real Sociedad rating1446 6th of 20, 11 games
- Athletic Club4-3-3 7th
- Athletic Club rating1446 7th of 20, 10 games
Real Sociedad 6-4-1
La Liga · 5th
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $REALSOCIEDAD
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $REALSOCIEDAD
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $REALSOCIEDAD
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $REALSOCIEDAD: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Real Sociedad bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Athletic Club 4-3-3
La Liga · 7th
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $ATHLETIC
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $ATHLETIC
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $ATHLETIC
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $ATHLETIC: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Athletic Club bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Real Sociedad at Athletic Club
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