Getafe vs Villarreal prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerVillarreal 61%
- Projected scoreVillarreal 1.7, Getafe 0.8
- Model spreadVillarreal −1 total 2.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Getafe or Villarreal: the bandwagon
Axle 16–61Market 12–67
Getafe at Villarreal win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Getafe vs Villarreal live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Getafe vs Villarreal team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | GET | VIL |
|---|---|---|
| Score | GET– | VIL– |
| Average win probability | GET– | VIL– |
| Longest scoring run | GET– | VIL– |
| Time leading | GET– | VIL– |
Getafe vs Villarreal model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | VIL win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:04 PM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 2:28 PM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 10:04 AM ET | 61% | −3 |
| Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 1:16 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:56 AM ET | 64% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 5:55 PM ET | 63% | −3 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 66% | −5 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 71% | — |
- Ratings
- VIL 1488 · GET 1395
- Home spread
- −1
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In La Liga a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:35 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Getafe vs Villarreal odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every La Liga marketKalshi prices Villarreal at 67%, Polymarket at 68% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 61%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | GET | Draw | VIL | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 13% | 20% | 67% | ||
| Polymarket | 12% | 20% | 68% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 16% | 23% | 61% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Getafe vs Villarreal prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Villarreal a 1-point favorite at home, with a 61% chance to win and a 23% chance of a draw. The model total is 2.5. Ratings: Villarreal 1488 (5th of 20), Getafe 1395 (15th). The Villarreal are 3-5-3; the Getafe are 3-5-3. The Villarreal have won 1 of their last 5; the Getafe 2 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Villarreal won 2, the Getafe 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Getafe
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Sevilla | W 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Athletic Club | L 0–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Rayo Vallecano | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Barcelona | L 0–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Málaga | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup |
Villarreal
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal at Getafe | 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Getafe at Villarreal | 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Villarreal at Getafe | 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Getafe at Villarreal | 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Getafe at Villarreal | 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Villarreal at Getafe | 0–0 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Getafe: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Villarreal: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Getafe3-5-3 13th
- Getafe rating1395 15th of 20, 11 games
- Villarreal3-5-3 9th
- Villarreal rating1488 5th of 20, 11 games
Getafe 3-5-3
La Liga · 13th
No stances yet today on $GETAFE: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Getafe bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Villarreal 3-5-3
La Liga · 9th
No stances yet today on $VILLARREAL: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Villarreal bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Getafe at Villarreal
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Model: Villarreal 61% to win, draw 23%. Projected score Villarreal 1.7, Getafe 0.8; spread Villarreal −1, total 2.5. Kalshi 67%, Polymarket 68% for Villarreal. Getafe at Villarreal, Sun, Nov 8, 12:30 PM ET.