La Liga tonight: Espanyol won 1-0 at Villarreal, so the result went to the away side. The model had Villarreal at 66 percent before kickoff, and no crowd picks were recorded in the thread.
LaLiga · · Estadio de la Cerámica · every La Liga line
Espanyol vs Villarreal: final score and how the prediction did, October 30, 2026
- Final scoreEspanyol 1, Villarreal 0 the projected winner lost
- Pregame Projected winnerVillarreal 66%
- Pregame Projected scoreVillarreal 1.8, Espanyol 0.8
- Model spreadVillarreal −1 total 2.5
- Margin1 projected 1
- Total1 projected 2.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Espanyol or Villarreal: the bandwagon
Axle 13–66Market –
FinalPregame: VIL 77%Baseline: VIL 52.2% (−24.3)Big swing: 42.9 ptsClutch window: 45:00
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| ESP | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| VIL | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
ESP 37.2%VIL 62.8%
Espanyol at Villarreal win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumSwinging to ESP−6.2 points for VIL over the last 10:00
Big swing42.9 ptstoward ESP at 62:00 of game time
Clutch window45:00within 1 goals in the final half
BaselineVIL 52.2%game average, −24.3 points from the pregame 76.5%
Espanyol vs Villarreal live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | ESP | VIL |
|---|---|---|
| Possession | ESP37.2% | VIL62.8% |
| Shots | ESP5 | VIL14 |
| Shots on target | ESP3 | VIL4 |
| Corners | ESP3 | VIL7 |
| Passes completed | ESP263/326 | VIL503/564 |
| Saves | ESP5 | VIL2 |
| Fouls | ESP13 | VIL15 |
| Offsides | ESP0 | VIL0 |
| Yellow cards | ESP3 | VIL3 |
| Red cards | ESP0 | VIL0 |
Espanyol vs Villarreal team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | ESP | VIL |
|---|---|---|
| Score | ESP1 | VIL0 |
| Average win probability | ESP48% | VIL52% |
| Longest scoring run | ESP+2 | VIL+0 |
| Time leading | ESP30:00 | VIL0:00 |
Espanyol vs Villarreal odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET
Espanyol13%
Win chanceVillarreal66%
SpreadVIL −1closing model spread
Total2.5
Moneyline+660away / +385draw / −196homeaway / draw / home
Line movementVIL win chance, 5 stored lines
−6 pts for VIL between Oct 29 and Oct 30
77%61%
Oct 29Oct 30
Every stored line
| Stored | VIL win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 66% | −6 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 72% | — |
- Ratings
- VIL 1505 · ESP 1379
- Home spread
- −1
- Stored
- Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET · 2026-10-30 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Espanyol 1, Villarreal 0. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In La Liga a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Oct 30, 10:35 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
EspanyolVillarreal
Neutrals only–
EspanyolVillarreal
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Villarreal–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Espanyol vs Villarreal prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Villarreal a 1-point favorite at home, with a 66% chance to win and a 21% chance of a draw. The model total is 2.5. Ratings: Villarreal 1488 (5th of 20), Espanyol 1396 (14th). The Villarreal are 3-5-3; the Espanyol are 3-6-2. The Villarreal have won 1 of their last 5; the Espanyol 1 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Villarreal won 6, the Espanyol 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Espanyol
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Villarreal | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Racing Santander | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Atlético Madrid | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Málaga | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Elche | L 1–3 | – | – | matchup |
Villarreal
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Espanyol at Villarreal | 1–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| Villarreal at Espanyol | 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Espanyol at Villarreal | 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Villarreal at Espanyol | 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Espanyol at Villarreal | 2–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| Villarreal at Espanyol | 1–0 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Espanyol: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Villarreal: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Espanyol3-6-2 14th
- Espanyol rating1396 14th of 20, 11 games
- Villarreal3-5-3 9th
- Villarreal rating1488 5th of 20, 11 games
Espanyol 3-6-2
La Liga · 14th
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $ESPANYOL
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $ESPANYOL
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $ESPANYOL
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $ESPANYOL: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Espanyol bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Villarreal 3-5-3
La Liga · 9th
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $VILLARREAL
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $VILLARREAL
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $VILLARREAL
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $VILLARREAL: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Villarreal bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Espanyol at Villarreal
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