Athletic Club vs Osasuna prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerAthletic Club 40%
- Projected scoreAthletic Club 1.6, Osasuna 1.4
- Model spreadeven total 3
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Athletic Club or Osasuna: the bandwagon
Axle 40–32Market 46–26
Athletic Club at Osasuna win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Athletic Club vs Osasuna live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Athletic Club vs Osasuna team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | ATH | OSA |
|---|---|---|
| Score | ATH– | OSA– |
| Average win probability | ATH– | OSA– |
| Longest scoring run | ATH– | OSA– |
| Time leading | ATH– | OSA– |
Athletic Club vs Osasuna model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | OSA win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 32% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 32% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 32% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 32% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 4:58 PM ET | 32% | −1 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:04 PM ET | 33% | −1 |
| Nov 1, 2:28 PM ET | 34% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 10:04 AM ET | 34% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET | 34% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 1:16 PM ET | 34% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:56 AM ET | 34% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 34% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 5:55 PM ET | 34% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 34% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 34% | −4 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 38% | — |
- Ratings
- OSA 1361 · ATH 1446
- Home spread
- PK
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In La Liga a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:35 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Athletic Club vs Osasuna odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every La Liga marketKalshi prices Athletic Club at 46%, Polymarket at 46%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 40%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | ATH | Draw | OSA | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 46% | 28% | 27% | ||
| Polymarket | 46% | 27% | 26% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 40% | 29% | 32% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Athletic Club vs Osasuna prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Athletic Club the favorite, with a 40% chance to win and a 29% chance of a draw; its spread rounds to even. The model total is 3. Ratings: Osasuna 1361 (19th of 20), Athletic Club 1446 (7th). The Osasuna are 3-5-2; the Athletic Club are 4-3-3. The Osasuna have won 1 of their last 5; the Athletic Club 2 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Osasuna won 0, the Athletic Club 3.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Athletic Club
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Real Sociedad | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Getafe | W 4–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Levante | L 1–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Valencia | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Alavés | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup |
Osasuna
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Deportivo | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Sevilla | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Racing Santander | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Real Betis | L 2–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Rayo Vallecano | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna at Athletic Club | 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Athletic Club at Osasuna | 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Osasuna at Athletic Club | 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Athletic Club at Osasuna | 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Osasuna at Athletic Club | 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Athletic Club at Osasuna | 2–0 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Athletic Club: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Osasuna: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Athletic Club4-3-3 7th
- Athletic Club rating1446 7th of 20, 10 games
- Osasuna3-5-2 15th
- Osasuna rating1361 19th of 20, 11 games
Athletic Club 4-3-3
La Liga · 7th
No stances yet today on $ATHLETIC: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Athletic Club bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Osasuna 3-5-2
La Liga · 15th
No stances yet today on $OSASUNA: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Osasuna bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Athletic Club at Osasuna
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Model: Athletic Club 40% to win, draw 29%. Projected score Athletic Club 1.6, Osasuna 1.4; spread even, total 3. Kalshi 46%, Polymarket 46% for Athletic Club. Athletic Club at Osasuna, Sat, Nov 7, 12:30 PM ET.