Deportivo 2, Osasuna 1 in La Liga, and the game is final. The model had the home side at 51 percent before kickoff, and no crowd picks were recorded, so there is no crowd read to compare.
LaLiga · · Estadio Municipal de Abanca Riazor · every La Liga line
Osasuna vs Deportivo: final score and how the prediction did, November 2, 2026
- Final scoreOsasuna 1, Deportivo 2 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerDeportivo 51%
- Pregame Projected scoreDeportivo 1.8, Osasuna 1.3
- Model spreadDeportivo −0.5 total 3
- Margin1 projected 0.5
- Total3 projected 3
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Osasuna or Deportivo: the bandwagon
Axle 22–51Market –
FinalPregame: DEP 64%Baseline: DEP 48.1% (−16.4)Big swing: 47.2 ptsClutch window: 45:00
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| OSA | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| DEP | 0 | 2 | 2 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
OSA 38%DEP 62%
Osasuna at Deportivo win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumSwinging to DEP+45.0 points for DEP over the last 10:00
Big swing47.2 ptstoward DEP at 89:00 of game time
Clutch window45:00within 1 goals in the final half
BaselineDEP 48.1%game average, −16.4 points from the pregame 64.4%
Osasuna vs Deportivo live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | OSA | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| Possession | OSA38% | DEP62% |
| Shots | OSA11 | DEP18 |
| Shots on target | OSA2 | DEP7 |
| Corners | OSA2 | DEP8 |
| Passes completed | OSA274/342 | DEP495/556 |
| Saves | OSA5 | DEP2 |
| Fouls | OSA13 | DEP5 |
| Offsides | OSA0 | DEP0 |
| Yellow cards | OSA4 | DEP0 |
| Red cards | OSA0 | DEP0 |
Osasuna vs Deportivo team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | OSA | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| Score | OSA1 | DEP2 |
| Average win probability | OSA52% | DEP48% |
| Longest scoring run | OSA+1 | DEP+2 |
| Time leading | OSA32:00 | DEP1:00 |
Osasuna vs Deportivo odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET
Osasuna22%
Win chanceDeportivo51%
SpreadDEP −0.5closing model spread
Total3
Moneyline+349away / +277draw / −105homeaway / draw / home
Line movementDEP win chance, 14 stored lines
−9 pts for DEP between Oct 29 and Nov 2
66%45%
Oct 29Oct 31Nov 2
Every stored line
| Stored | DEP win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:04 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 2:28 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 10:04 AM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 1:16 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:56 AM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 5:55 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 51% | −9 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 60% | — |
- Ratings
- DEP 1403 · OSA 1369
- Home spread
- −0.5
- Stored
- Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-02 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Osasuna 1, Deportivo 2. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In La Liga a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 2, 2:59 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
OsasunaDeportivo
Neutrals only–
OsasunaDeportivo
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Deportivo–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Osasuna vs Deportivo prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Deportivo a 0.5-point favorite at home, with a 51% chance to win and a 27% chance of a draw. The model total is 3. Ratings: Deportivo 1411 (12th of 20), Osasuna 1361 (19th). The Deportivo are 2-3-5; the Osasuna are 3-5-2. The Deportivo have won 1 of their last 5; the Osasuna 1 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Osasuna
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Deportivo | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Sevilla | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Racing Santander | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Real Betis | L 2–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Rayo Vallecano | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup |
Deportivo
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Osasuna | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Atlético Madrid | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Levante | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Real Sociedad | L 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Real Betis | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Osasuna: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Deportivo: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Osasuna3-5-2 15th
- Osasuna rating1361 19th of 20, 11 games
- Deportivo2-3-5 13th
- Deportivo rating1411 12th of 20, 11 games
Osasuna 3-5-2
La Liga · 15th
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $OSASUNA
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $OSASUNA
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $OSASUNA
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $OSASUNA: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Osasuna bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Deportivo 2-3-5
La Liga · 13th
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $DEPORTIVO
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $DEPORTIVO
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $DEPORTIVO
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $DEPORTIVO: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Deportivo bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Osasuna at Deportivo
Sign in to post a take on $OSASUNADEPORTIVO261102: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.