Premier League prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Games with a market price, beside the model. Futures · model lines
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Premier League prediction market odds Friday, November 6
1 game| Game | Kick (ET) | Kalshi away · home | Polymarket away · home | Bandwagon model away · home | Bandwagon away · home | Gap market − model | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COV at EVE Coventry City at Everton | 20 · 56 draw 24 Kalshi · | 20 · 57 draw 24 Polymarket · | 22 · 52 model 2.0 | – | +4 EVE, Kalshi | Matchup |
Premier League prediction market odds Saturday, November 7
4 games| Game | Kick (ET) | Kalshi away · home | Polymarket away · home | Bandwagon model away · home | Bandwagon away · home | Gap market − model | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOT at LEE Tottenham Hotspur at Leeds United | 35 · 36 draw 28 Kalshi · | 35 · 37 draw 29 Polymarket · | 24 · 50 model 2.0 | – | −14 LEE, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| HUL at ARS Hull City at Arsenal | 5 · 85 draw 11 Kalshi · | 4 · 84 draw 11 Polymarket · | 11 · 73 model 2.0 | – | +12 ARS, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| NEW at FUL Newcastle United at Fulham | 27 · 47 draw 25 Kalshi · | 27 · 46 draw 26 Polymarket · | 28 · 45 model 2.0 | – | +2 FUL, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| MNC at NFO Manchester City at Nottingham Forest | 56 · 20 draw 23 Kalshi · | 57 · 20 draw 24 Polymarket · | 55 · 20 model 2.0 | – | −1 NFO, Polymarket | Matchup |
Premier League prediction market odds Sunday, November 8
5 games| Game | Kick (ET) | Kalshi away · home | Polymarket away · home | Bandwagon model away · home | Bandwagon away · home | Gap market − model | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIV at CRY Liverpool at Crystal Palace | 60 · 17 draw 22 Kalshi · | 61 · 17 draw 22 Polymarket · | 48 · 26 model 2.0 | – | −9 CRY, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| CHE at SUN Chelsea at Sunderland | 48 · 26 draw 26 Kalshi · | 47 · 26 draw 26 Polymarket · | 38 · 34 model 2.0 | – | −8 SUN, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| BRE at BHA Brentford at Brighton & Hove Albion | 25 · 49 draw 25 Kalshi · | 25 · 50 draw 25 Polymarket · | 21 · 54 model 2.0 | – | −5 BHA, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| BOU at IPS AFC Bournemouth at Ipswich Town | 50 · 25 draw 26 Kalshi · | 50 · 25 draw 26 Polymarket · | 44 · 28 model 2.0 | – | −4 IPS, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| AVL at MAN Aston Villa at Manchester United | 31 · 44 draw 26 Kalshi · | 30 · 44 draw 26 Polymarket · | 30 · 42 model 2.0 | – | +2 MAN, Kalshi | Matchup |
Premier League title odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
All teams| Team | Kalshi | Polymarket | Axle rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 71% | 70% | #1 |
| Manchester City | 11% | 11% | #2 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 7.5% | 6.7% | #3 |
| Liverpool | 5.5% | 5.4% | #4 |
| Chelsea | 3.5% | 3.7% | #9 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 0.5% | 1.2% | #15 |
| Manchester United | 0.5% | 0.7% | #7 |
| AFC Bournemouth | 0.5% | 0.1% | #5 |
Premier League: market versus model record
- Kalshi's closing price beat the model in Premier League over 10 games (Brier 0.2498 against 0.2711, lower is better).
- Polymarket's closing price beat the model in Premier League over 10 games (Brier 0.2509 against 0.2711, lower is better).
| League | Games | Who | n | Brier | Log loss | Straight-up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | Kalshi games | Kalshi price | 10 | 0.2498 | 0.6932 | 50% |
| Premier League | Kalshi games | Bandwagon model | 10 | 0.2711 | 0.7348 | 60% |
| Premier League | Polymarket games | Polymarket price | 10 | 0.2509 | 0.695 | 50% |
| Premier League | Polymarket games | Bandwagon model | 10 | 0.2711 | 0.7348 | 60% |
The model's numbers are on the same games the market was scored on. 0.25 Brier and 0.693 log loss are a coin flip.
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Kalshi and Polymarket prices for upcoming Premier League games and the season, next to Bandwagon's model and the crowd's picks, with the record of who was right. Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers.