Premier League odds this week
Win chance, spread and total for every game. Today's Premier League predictions · Standings · every league
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers. How the model works · Axle 2.0 · Betting guide
Premier League odds Friday, November 6
1 game| Game | Kick (ET) | Axle win | Spread | Total | Moneyline (away / draw / home) | Movement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry City at Everton | Everton 52%draw 25% | Everton −0.5 | 2.5 | +348 / +294 / −110 | no move | Matchup |
Premier League odds Saturday, November 7
4 games| Game | Kick (ET) | Axle win | Spread | Total | Moneyline (away / draw / home) | Movement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham Hotspur at Leeds United | Leeds United 50%draw 26% | Leeds United −0.5 | 2.5 | +317 / +284 / +100 | no move | Matchup | |
| Hull City at Arsenal | Arsenal 73%draw 17% | Arsenal −1.5 | 2.5 | +844 / +498 / −266 | no move | Matchup | |
| Newcastle United at Fulham | Fulham 45%draw 27% | Fulham −0.5 | 2.5 | +260 / +268 / +122 | no move | Matchup | |
| Manchester City at Nottingham Forest | Manchester City 55%draw 24% | Manchester City −1 | 3 | −123 / +309 / +389 | no move | Matchup |
Premier League odds Sunday, November 8
5 games| Game | Kick (ET) | Axle win | Spread | Total | Moneyline (away / draw / home) | Movement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Bournemouth at Ipswich Town | AFC Bournemouth 44%draw 27% | AFC Bournemouth −0.5 | 3 | +125 / +266 / +253 | no move | Matchup | |
| Brentford at Brighton & Hove Albion | Brighton & Hove Albion 54%draw 25% | Brighton & Hove Albion −0.5 | 3 | +369 / +302 / −116 | no move | Matchup | |
| Chelsea at Sunderland | Chelsea 38%draw 28% | PK | 3 | +161 / +257 / +197 | no move | Matchup | |
| Liverpool at Crystal Palace | Liverpool 48%draw 27% | Liverpool −0.5 | 3 | +110 / +276 / +289 | no move | Matchup | |
| Aston Villa at Manchester United | Manchester United 42%draw 28% | PK | 2.5 | +231 / +262 / +137 | no move | Matchup |
How these lines are made
In Premier League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal inputs
- Ratings from results used in 10 of 10
an Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results - Home advantage used in 10 of 10
the league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results - Schedule in the data but not used for 10
rest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures - Recent form in the data but not used for 10
average margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External inputs
- Injuries unavailable for 10 (No injury list read before this game; More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that window)
players listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores - Travel and time zones in the data but not used for 10
distance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · newest read Oct 29, 10:36 PM UTC - Weather in the data but not used for 10
forecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · newest read Nov 4, 10:03 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Premier League team ratings
The Elo-style ratings the lines are made from, after the latest results. The league mean is 1500.
| # | Team | Rating | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 1631 | 9 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 1604 | 9 |
| 3 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 1529 | 9 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 1513 | 9 |
| 5 | AFC Bournemouth | 1494 | 9 |
| 6 | Aston Villa | 1478 | 9 |
| 7 | Manchester United | 1462 | 9 |
| 8 | Brentford | 1459 | 9 |
| 9 | Chelsea | 1457 | 9 |
| 10 | Leeds United | 1437 | 9 |
| 11 | Everton | 1436 | 9 |
| 12 | Fulham | 1416 | 9 |
Top 12 of 20; every team's rating is on its page.
Premier League model record
Over 812 Premier League games in 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, scored before each result was known: the favored side won 48% of the time, Brier score 0.2358, mean spread error 1.319 points, mean total error 1.315. Calibration and method.
Bandwagon's model lines for Premier League games this week: win probability, spread, total and moneyline for each game, movement since the last line, and the team ratings behind them. Not a sportsbook.