Tottenham Hotspur vs Leeds United prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerLeeds United 50%
- Projected scoreLeeds United 1.5, Tottenham Hotspur 1.0
- Model spreadLeeds United −0.5 total 2.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Tottenham Hotspur or Leeds United: the bandwagon
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Axle 24–50Market 36–36
Tottenham Hotspur at Leeds United win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Tottenham Hotspur vs Leeds United live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Tottenham Hotspur vs Leeds United team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | TOT | LEE |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TOT– | LEE– |
| Average win probability | TOT– | LEE– |
| Longest scoring run | TOT– | LEE– |
| Time leading | TOT– | LEE– |
Tottenham Hotspur vs Leeds United model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | LEE win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:28 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:02 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:26 PM ET | 50% | −2 |
| Oct 31, 1:01 PM ET | 52% | −1 |
| Oct 31, 12:56 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 53% | +2 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 51% | — |
- Ratings
- LEE 1437 · TOT 1395
- Home spread
- −0.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In Premier League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:36 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:35 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Tottenham Hotspur vs Leeds United odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every Premier League marketKalshi prices Leeds United at 36%, Polymarket at 36%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 50%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | TOT | Draw | LEE | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 36% | 28% | 36% | ||
| Polymarket | 35% | 29% | 36% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 24% | 26% | 50% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Tottenham Hotspur vs Leeds United prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Leeds United a 0.5-point favorite at home, with a 50% chance to win and a 26% chance of a draw. The model total is 2.5. Ratings: Leeds United 1437 (10th of 20), Tottenham Hotspur 1395 (15th). The Leeds United are 2-2-5; the Tottenham Hotspur are 3-3-3. The Leeds United have won 0 of their last 5; the Tottenham Hotspur 3 of their last 5. The two have met 4 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Leeds United won 0, the Tottenham Hotspur 3.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Tottenham Hotspur
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Crystal Palace | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Chelsea | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Coventry City | W 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Manchester United | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Aston Villa | L 2–3 | – | – | matchup |
Leeds United
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at AFC Bournemouth | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Sunderland | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Manchester United | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Arsenal | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Crystal Palace | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds United at Tottenham Hotspur | 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Tottenham Hotspur at Leeds United | 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Tottenham Hotspur at Leeds United | 4–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Leeds United at Tottenham Hotspur | 3–4 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Tottenham Hotspur: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Leeds United: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Tottenham Hotspur3-3-3 9th
- Tottenham Hotspur rating1395 15th of 20, 9 games
- Leeds United2-2-5 12th
- Leeds United rating1437 10th of 20, 9 games
Tottenham Hotspur 3-3-3
Premier League · 9th
No stances yet today on $SPURSTOT: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Tottenham Hotspur bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Leeds United 2-2-5
Premier League · 12th
No stances yet today on $LEEDS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Leeds United bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Tottenham Hotspur at Leeds United
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Model: Leeds United 50% to win, draw 26%. Projected score Leeds United 1.5, Tottenham Hotspur 1.0; spread Leeds United −0.5, total 2.5. Kalshi 36%, Polymarket 36% for Leeds United. Tottenham Hotspur at Leeds United, Sat, Nov 7, 7:30 AM ET.