Scoreless at the 11th minute with the model at 49 percent for Bournemouth, which is a shade ahead of Leeds in the table of likelihoods. The crowd has not registered a pick yet, so the supporters have nothing on the board to show the gap.
Premier League · · Dean Court · every Premier League line
Leeds United vs AFC Bournemouth: final score and how the prediction did, October 31, 2026
- Final scoreLeeds United 0, AFC Bournemouth 2 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerAFC Bournemouth 49%
- Pregame Projected scoreAFC Bournemouth 1.5, Leeds United 1.0
- Model spreadAFC Bournemouth −0.5 total 2.5
- Margin2 projected 0.5
- Total2 projected 2.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Leeds United or AFC Bournemouth: the bandwagon
Bandwagon
Be the first on the bandwagon
Axle 25–49Market 24–48
FinalPregame: BOU 62%Baseline: BOU 79.2% (+17.0)Big swing: 27.2 ptsClutch window: 45:00
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| LEE | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BOU | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
LEE 56.2%BOU 43.8%
Leeds United at AFC Bournemouth win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumSwinging to BOU+3.6 points for BOU over the last 10:00
Big swing27.2 ptstoward BOU at 15:00 of game time
Clutch window45:00within 1 goals in the final half
BaselineBOU 79.2%game average, +17.0 points from the pregame 62.2%
Leeds United vs AFC Bournemouth live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | LEE | BOU |
|---|---|---|
| Possession | LEE56.2% | BOU43.8% |
| Shots | LEE10 | BOU11 |
| Shots on target | LEE1 | BOU5 |
| Corners | LEE4 | BOU4 |
| Passes completed | LEE411/509 | BOU314/408 |
| Saves | LEE3 | BOU1 |
| Fouls | LEE15 | BOU12 |
| Offsides | LEE1 | BOU0 |
| Yellow cards | LEE2 | BOU2 |
| Red cards | LEE0 | BOU0 |
Leeds United vs AFC Bournemouth team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | LEE | BOU |
|---|---|---|
| Score | LEE0 | BOU2 |
| Average win probability | LEE21% | BOU79% |
| Longest scoring run | LEE+1 | BOU+1 |
| Time leading | LEE2:00 | BOU57:00 |
Leeds United vs AFC Bournemouth model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Oct 31, 12:56 PM ET
Leeds United25%
Win chanceAFC Bournemouth49%
SpreadBOU −0.5closing model spread
Total2.5
Moneyline+305away / +279draw / +104homeaway / draw / home
Line movementBOU win chance, 8 stored lines
+4 pts for BOU between Oct 28 and Oct 31
55%39%
Oct 28Oct 30Oct 31
Every stored line
| Stored | BOU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 12:56 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 12:56 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 49% | +4 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 45% | — |
- Ratings
- BOU 1483 · LEE 1448
- Home spread
- −0.5
- Stored
- Oct 31, 12:56 PM ET · 2026-10-31 16:56 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Leeds United 0, AFC Bournemouth 2. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In Premier League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:36 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Oct 31, 11:30 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
Leeds UnitedAFC Bournemouth
Neutrals only–
Leeds UnitedAFC Bournemouth
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, AFC Bournemouth–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Leeds United vs AFC Bournemouth odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every Premier League marketKalshi had AFC Bournemouth at 48% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 48% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 49% when last read, .
| Source | LEE | Draw | BOU | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 24% | 28% | 48% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 24% | 28% | 48% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 25% | 26% | 49% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, BOU: −1Polymarket minus model, BOU: −1
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Leeds United vs AFC Bournemouth prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the AFC Bournemouth a 0.5-point favorite at home, with a 49% chance to win and a 26% chance of a draw. The model total is 2.5. Ratings: AFC Bournemouth 1494 (5th of 20), Leeds United 1437 (10th). The AFC Bournemouth are 3-3-3; the Leeds United are 2-2-5. The AFC Bournemouth have won 3 of their last 5; the Leeds United 0 of their last 5. The two have met 4 times in Bandwagon's results history; the AFC Bournemouth won 1, the Leeds United 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Leeds United
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at AFC Bournemouth | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Sunderland | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Manchester United | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Arsenal | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Crystal Palace | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup |
AFC Bournemouth
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Leeds United | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Manchester United | W 3–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Sunderland | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Chelsea | L 1–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Liverpool | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds United at AFC Bournemouth | 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| AFC Bournemouth at Leeds United | 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Leeds United at AFC Bournemouth | 1–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| AFC Bournemouth at Leeds United | 3–4 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Leeds United: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
AFC Bournemouth: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Leeds United2-2-5 12th
- Leeds United rating1437 10th of 20, 9 games
- AFC Bournemouth3-3-3 8th
- AFC Bournemouth rating1494 5th of 20, 9 games
Leeds United 2-2-5
Premier League · 12th
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $LEEDS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $LEEDS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $LEEDS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $LEEDS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Leeds United bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
AFC Bournemouth 3-3-3
Premier League · 8th
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $BOURNEMOUTH
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $BOURNEMOUTH
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $BOURNEMOUTH
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $BOURNEMOUTH: the share of the crowd ▲ on the AFC Bournemouth bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Leeds United at AFC Bournemouth
Sign in to post a take on $LEEDSBOURNEMOUTH261031: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
Final: Leeds United 0, AFC Bournemouth 2. Bandwagon's model had the AFC Bournemouth at 49% and projected AFC Bournemouth 1.5, Leeds United 1.0; spread AFC Bournemouth −0.5, total 2.5. Last read: Kalshi 48%, Polymarket 48% for AFC Bournemouth.