Premier League odds Monday, November 2
Win chance, spread and total for every game. Today's Premier League predictions · Standings · every league
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers. How the model works · Axle 2.0 · Betting guide
Premier League odds Monday, November 2
1 game| Game | Kick (ET) | Axle win | Spread | Total | Moneyline (away / draw / home) | Movement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton at Newcastle United | Newcastle United 44%draw 27% | Newcastle United −0.5 | 3 | +255 / +265 / +125 | no move | Matchup |
How these lines are made
In Premier League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal inputs
- Ratings from results used in 1 of 1
an Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results - Home advantage used in 1 of 1
the league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results - Schedule in the data but not used for 1
rest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures - Recent form in the data but not used for 1
average margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External inputs
- Injuries unavailable for 1 (No injury list read before this game)
players listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores - Travel and time zones in the data but not used for 1
distance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · newest read Oct 29, 10:36 PM UTC - Weather in the data but not used for 1
forecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · newest read Nov 2, 2:59 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Premier League team ratings
The Elo-style ratings the lines are made from, after the latest results. The league mean is 1500.
| # | Team | Rating | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 1631 | 9 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 1604 | 9 |
| 3 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 1529 | 9 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 1513 | 9 |
| 5 | AFC Bournemouth | 1494 | 9 |
| 6 | Aston Villa | 1478 | 9 |
| 7 | Manchester United | 1462 | 9 |
| 8 | Brentford | 1459 | 9 |
| 9 | Chelsea | 1457 | 9 |
| 10 | Leeds United | 1437 | 9 |
| 11 | Everton | 1436 | 9 |
| 12 | Fulham | 1416 | 9 |
Top 12 of 20; every team's rating is on its page.
Premier League model record
Over 812 Premier League games in 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, scored before each result was known: the favored side won 48% of the time, Brier score 0.2358, mean spread error 1.319 points, mean total error 1.315. Calibration and method.
Bandwagon's model lines for Premier League games Monday, November 2: win probability, spread, total and moneyline for each game, movement since the last line, and the team ratings behind them. Not a sportsbook.