Newcastle start at home with the model giving them 44 percent, which is the largest share on the board at kickoff. The crowd has not made a pick yet, so the supporters have nothing to report at 1'.
Premier League · · St James’ Park · every Premier League line
Everton vs Newcastle United: final score and how the prediction did, November 2, 2026
- Final scoreEverton 1, Newcastle United 0 the projected winner lost
- Pregame Projected winnerNewcastle United 44%
- Pregame Projected scoreNewcastle United 1.8, Everton 1.3
- Model spreadNewcastle United −0.5 total 3
- Margin1 projected 0.5
- Total1 projected 3
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Everton or Newcastle United: the bandwagon
Axle 28–44Market 28–45
FinalPregame: NEW 58%Baseline: NEW 36.4% (−21.7)Big swing: 34.9 ptsClutch window: 45:00
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| EVE | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| NEW | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
EVE 48.4%NEW 51.6%
Everton at Newcastle United win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumSwinging to EVE−4.7 points for NEW over the last 10:00
Big swing34.9 ptstoward EVE at 51:00 of game time
Clutch window45:00within 1 goals in the final half
BaselineNEW 36.4%game average, −21.7 points from the pregame 58.1%
Everton vs Newcastle United live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | EVE | NEW |
|---|---|---|
| Possession | EVE48.4% | NEW51.6% |
| Shots | EVE16 | NEW17 |
| Shots on target | EVE5 | NEW2 |
| Corners | EVE5 | NEW4 |
| Passes completed | EVE315/394 | NEW331/419 |
| Saves | EVE2 | NEW4 |
| Fouls | EVE9 | NEW13 |
| Offsides | EVE2 | NEW0 |
| Yellow cards | EVE2 | NEW2 |
| Red cards | EVE0 | NEW1 |
Everton vs Newcastle United team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | EVE | NEW |
|---|---|---|
| Score | EVE1 | NEW0 |
| Average win probability | EVE64% | NEW36% |
| Longest scoring run | EVE+1 | NEW+0 |
| Time leading | EVE39:00 | NEW0:00 |
Everton vs Newcastle United model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET
Everton28%
Win chanceNewcastle United44%
SpreadNEW −0.5closing model spread
Total3
Moneyline+255away / +265draw / +125homeaway / draw / home
Line movementNEW win chance, 14 stored lines
+3 pts for NEW between Oct 28 and Nov 2
50%36%
Oct 28Oct 31Nov 2
Every stored line
| Stored | NEW win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:28 PM ET | 44% | −1 |
| Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:02 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:26 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 1:01 PM ET | 45% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 12:56 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 44% | +3 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 41% | — |
- Ratings
- NEW 1424 · EVE 1423
- Home spread
- −0.5
- Stored
- Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-02 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Everton 1, Newcastle United 0. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In Premier League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:36 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 2, 2:59 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
EvertonNewcastle United
Neutrals only–
EvertonNewcastle United
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Newcastle United–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Everton vs Newcastle United odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every Premier League marketKalshi had Newcastle United at 44% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 45% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 44% when last read, ; the two venues were 1 point apart at those reads.
| Source | EVE | Draw | NEW | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 29% | 27% | 44% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 28% | 27% | 45% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 28% | 27% | 44% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, NEW: 0Polymarket minus model, NEW: 0
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Everton vs Newcastle United prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Newcastle United a 0.5-point favorite at home, with a 44% chance to win and a 27% chance of a draw. The model total is 3. Ratings: Newcastle United 1411 (13th of 20), Everton 1436 (11th). The Newcastle United are 3-4-2; the Everton are 3-2-4. The Newcastle United have won 2 of their last 5; the Everton 2 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Newcastle United won 1, the Everton 3.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Everton
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Newcastle United | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Arsenal | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Chelsea | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Hull City | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Ipswich Town | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup |
Newcastle United
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Everton | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Crystal Palace | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Aston Villa | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Coventry City | L 1–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Hull City | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton at Newcastle United | 3–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Newcastle United at Everton | 4–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Everton at Newcastle United | 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Newcastle United at Everton | 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Everton at Newcastle United | 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Newcastle United at Everton | 0–3 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Everton: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Newcastle United: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Everton3-2-4 7th
- Everton rating1436 11th of 20, 9 games
- Newcastle United3-4-2 13th
- Newcastle United rating1411 13th of 20, 9 games
Everton 3-2-4
Premier League · 7th
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $EVERTON
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $EVERTON
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $EVERTON
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $EVERTON: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Everton bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Newcastle United 3-4-2
Premier League · 13th
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $NEWCASTLE
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $NEWCASTLE
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $NEWCASTLE
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $NEWCASTLE: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Newcastle United bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Everton at Newcastle United
Sign in to post a take on $EVERTONNEWCASTLE261102: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
Final: Everton 1, Newcastle United 0. Bandwagon's model had the Newcastle United at 44% and projected Newcastle United 1.8, Everton 1.3; spread Newcastle United −0.5, total 3. Last read: Kalshi 44%, Polymarket 45% for Newcastle United.