Levante vs Celta Vigo prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerCelta Vigo 54%
- Projected scoreCelta Vigo 1.6, Levante 0.9
- Model spreadCelta Vigo −0.5 total 2.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Levante or Celta Vigo: the bandwagon
Axle 21–54Market 22–53
Levante at Celta Vigo win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Levante vs Celta Vigo live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Levante vs Celta Vigo team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | LEV | CEL |
|---|---|---|
| Score | LEV– | CEL– |
| Average win probability | LEV– | CEL– |
| Longest scoring run | LEV– | CEL– |
| Time leading | LEV– | CEL– |
Levante vs Celta Vigo model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | CEL win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:04 PM ET | 54% | +1 |
| Nov 1, 2:28 PM ET | 53% | −1 |
| Nov 1, 10:04 AM ET | 54% | +1 |
| Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 1:16 PM ET | 53% | −3 |
| Oct 31, 10:56 AM ET | 56% | +2 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 5:55 PM ET | 54% | −1 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 55% | −5 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 60% | — |
- Ratings
- CEL 1432 · LEV 1385
- Home spread
- −0.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In La Liga a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:35 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Levante vs Celta Vigo odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every La Liga marketKalshi prices Celta Vigo at 54%, Polymarket at 53% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 54%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | LEV | Draw | CEL | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 22% | 24% | 54% | ||
| Polymarket | 22% | 25% | 53% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 21% | 26% | 54% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Levante vs Celta Vigo prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Celta Vigo a 0.5-point favorite at home, with a 54% chance to win and a 26% chance of a draw. The model total is 2.5. Ratings: Celta Vigo 1432 (9th of 20), Levante 1385 (17th). The Celta Vigo are 2-3-6; the Levante are 2-5-4. The Celta Vigo have won 2 of their last 5; the Levante 1 of their last 5. The two have met 2 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Celta Vigo won 1, the Levante 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Levante
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Atlético Madrid | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Real Sociedad | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Athletic Club | W 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Deportivo | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Sevilla | T 3–3 | – | – | matchup |
Celta Vigo
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Rayo Vallecano | L 0–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Real Betis | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Alavés | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Elche | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Racing Santander | W 5–0 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levante at Celta Vigo | 3–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Celta Vigo at Levante | 2–1 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Levante: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Celta Vigo: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Levante2-5-4 18th
- Levante rating1385 17th of 20, 11 games
- Celta Vigo2-3-6 10th
- Celta Vigo rating1432 9th of 20, 11 games
Levante 2-5-4
La Liga · 18th
No stances yet today on $LEVANTE: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Levante bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Celta Vigo 2-3-6
La Liga · 10th
No stances yet today on $CELTAVIGO: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Celta Vigo bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Levante at Celta Vigo
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Model: Celta Vigo 54% to win, draw 26%. Projected score Celta Vigo 1.6, Levante 0.9; spread Celta Vigo −0.5, total 2.5. Kalshi 54%, Polymarket 53% for Celta Vigo. Levante at Celta Vigo, Sun, Nov 8, 12:30 PM ET.