Miami Heat vs Golden State Warriors prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerWarriors 69%
- Projected scoreWarriors 120, Heat 113
- Model spreadWarriors −7 total 233.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Miami Heat or Golden State Warriors: the bandwagon
Be the first on the bandwagon
Axle 31–69Market 38–62
Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Miami Heat vs Golden State Warriors live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Miami Heat vs Golden State Warriors team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | MIA | GS |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MIA– | GS– |
| Average win probability | MIA– | GS– |
| Longest scoring run | MIA– | GS– |
| Time leading | MIA– | GS– |
Miami Heat vs Golden State Warriors model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | GS win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:59 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:54 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:39 AM ET | 69% | +2 |
| Nov 2, 11:04 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:41 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:32 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:12 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:07 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:02 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:57 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:36 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 11:00 PM ET | 67% | +2 |
| Nov 1, 7:51 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 6:07 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 65% | +10 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 12:56 AM ET | 55% | +2 |
| Oct 30, 10:41 PM ET | 53% | −1 |
| Oct 30, 10:26 PM ET | 54% | +1 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 53% | +2 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 2:00 AM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:06 AM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:41 AM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:09 AM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:54 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 51% | — |
- Ratings
- GS 1497 · MIA 1481
- Home spread
- −7
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In National Basketball Association a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past National Basketball Association seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries in the data, not usedplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores · read Nov 3, 10:02 AM UTC
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Heat vs Warriors odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NBA marketKalshi prices the Warriors at 63%, Polymarket at 62% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 69%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | MIA | GS | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 37% | 63% | ||
| Polymarket | 39% | 62% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 31% | 69% | · model 2.0 |
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Miami Heat vs Golden State Warriors prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Warriors a 7-point favorite at home, with a 69% chance to win. The model total is 233.5. Ratings: Warriors 1497 (17th of 30), Heat 1481 (19th). The Warriors are 4-3 in the Pacific; the Heat are 2-4 in the Southeast. The Warriors have won 5 of their last 5; the Heat 2 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Warriors won 2, the Heat 4.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Miami Heat
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Los Angeles Lakers | L 117–138 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Indiana Pacers | W 145–125 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Atlanta Hawks | W 129–117 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Dallas Mavericks | L 109–113 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Charlotte Hornets | L 110–115 | – | – | matchup |
Golden State Warriors
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Phoenix Suns | W 116–113 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs LA Clippers | W 124–112 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Los Angeles Lakers | W 112–95 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Minnesota Timberwolves | W 119–114 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Denver Nuggets | W 134–114 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors | 112–135 | – | – | matchup | |
| Golden State Warriors at Miami Heat | 96–110 | – | – | matchup | |
| Golden State Warriors at Miami Heat | 86–112 | – | – | matchup | |
| Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors | 114–98 | – | – | matchup | |
| Golden State Warriors at Miami Heat | 113–92 | – | – | matchup | |
| Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors | 114–102 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Miami Heat: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Golden State Warriors: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Heat2-4 Southeast, 2nd · W2
- Heat rating1481 19th of 30, 7 games
- Warriors4-3 Pacific, 4th · W4
- Warriors rating1497 17th of 30, 8 games
Miami Heat 2-4
National Basketball Association · Southeast · 2nd · streak W2
No stances yet today on $HEAT: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Miami Heat bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
National Basketball Association · Pacific · 4th · streak W4
1 stance today on $WARRIORS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Golden State Warriors bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors
Sign in to post a take on $HEATWARRIORS261106: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
No takes on this game yet. Yours goes first.
Model: Warriors 69% to win. Projected score Warriors 120, Heat 113; spread Warriors −7, total 233.5. Kalshi 63%, Polymarket 62% for the Warriors. Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors, Thu, Nov 5, 10:00 PM ET.