Phoenix Suns vs Denver Nuggets prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerNuggets 76%
- Projected scoreNuggets 121, Suns 111
- Model spreadNuggets −9.5 total 231.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Phoenix Suns or Denver Nuggets: the bandwagon
Axle 24–76Market 27–73
Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Phoenix Suns vs Denver Nuggets live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Phoenix Suns vs Denver Nuggets team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | PHX | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PHX– | DEN– |
| Average win probability | PHX– | DEN– |
| Longest scoring run | PHX– | DEN– |
| Time leading | PHX– | DEN– |
Phoenix Suns vs Denver Nuggets model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | DEN win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 1:27 AM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 12:42 AM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 12:30 AM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 11:46 PM ET | 76% | +1 |
| Nov 4, 11:36 PM ET | 75% | +2 |
| Nov 4, 11:11 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 11:06 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 10:26 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 10:21 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 10:00 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 9:30 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 73% | — |
- Ratings
- DEN 1587 · PHX 1468
- Home spread
- −9.5
- Stored
- Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET · 2026-11-05 10:04 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In National Basketball Association a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past National Basketball Association seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Suns vs Nuggets odds on Polymarket
Every NBA marketPolymarket prices the Nuggets at 73%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 76%.
Prices read: Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | PHX | DEN | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 27% | 73% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 24% | 76% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Phoenix Suns vs Denver Nuggets prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Nuggets a 9.5-point favorite at home, with a 76% chance to win. The model total is 231.5. Ratings: Nuggets 1587 (10th of 30), Suns 1468 (19th). The Nuggets are 3-3 in the Northwest; the Suns are 1-4 in the Pacific. The Nuggets have won 3 of their last 5; the Suns 1 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Nuggets won 6, the Suns 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Phoenix Suns
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Portland Trail Blazers | L 119–132 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Golden State Warriors | L 113–116 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Denver Nuggets | L 120–127 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Oklahoma City Thunder | L 114–125 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Golden State Warriors | W 131–122 | – | – | matchup |
Denver Nuggets
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Toronto Raptors | W 128–109 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Portland Trail Blazers | L 110–118 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Phoenix Suns | W 127–120 | – | – | matchup | |
| at New Orleans Pelicans | W 104–91 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Golden State Warriors | L 114–134 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns | 127–120 | – | – | matchup | |
| Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns | 125–123 | – | – | matchup | |
| Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns | 130–112 | – | – | matchup | |
| Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets | 111–133 | – | – | matchup | |
| Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets | 141–149 | – | – | matchup | |
| Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns | 122–105 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Phoenix Suns: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Denver Nuggets: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Suns1-4 Pacific, 3rd · L3
- Suns rating1468 19th of 30, 6 games
- Nuggets3-3 Northwest, 2nd · L1
- Nuggets rating1587 10th of 30, 7 games
Phoenix Suns 1-4
National Basketball Association · Pacific · 3rd · streak L3
No stances yet today on $SUNS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Phoenix Suns bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Denver Nuggets 3-3
National Basketball Association · Northwest · 2nd · streak L1
No stances yet today on $NUGGETS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Denver Nuggets bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets
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Model: Nuggets 76% to win. Projected score Nuggets 121, Suns 111; spread Nuggets −9.5, total 231.5. Polymarket 73% for the Nuggets. Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets, Mon, Nov 16, 9:00 PM ET.