Washington Wizards vs Indiana Pacers prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerPacers 57%
- Projected scorePacers 114, Wizards 110
- Model spreadPacers −3.5 total 224
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Washington Wizards or Indiana Pacers: the bandwagon
Axle 43–57Market 48–52
Washington Wizards at Indiana Pacers win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Washington Wizards vs Indiana Pacers live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Washington Wizards vs Indiana Pacers team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | WSH | IND |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WSH– | IND– |
| Average win probability | WSH– | IND– |
| Longest scoring run | WSH– | IND– |
| Time leading | WSH– | IND– |
Washington Wizards vs Indiana Pacers model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | IND win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 1:27 AM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 12:42 AM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 11:46 PM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 11:36 PM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 11:11 PM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 10:36 PM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 10:26 PM ET | 57% | +2 |
| Nov 4, 10:00 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 9:30 PM ET | 55% | +1 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:59 AM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:54 AM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:35 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:04 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:41 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:32 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:12 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:07 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:02 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:57 PM ET | 54% | −3 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 11:40 PM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 7:51 PM ET | 57% | −2 |
| Nov 1, 6:07 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 59% | −2 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 10:41 PM ET | 61% | −1 |
| Oct 30, 10:26 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 9:36 PM ET | 62% | −3 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 2:00 AM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:06 AM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:41 AM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:09 AM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:54 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 65% | — |
- Ratings
- IND 1321 · WSH 1301
- Home spread
- −3.5
- Stored
- Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET · 2026-11-05 10:04 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In National Basketball Association a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past National Basketball Association seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Wizards vs Pacers odds on Polymarket
Every NBA marketPolymarket prices the Pacers at 52%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 57%.
Prices read: Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | WSH | IND | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 48% | 52% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 43% | 57% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Washington Wizards vs Indiana Pacers prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Pacers a 3.5-point favorite at home, with a 57% chance to win. The model total is 224. Ratings: Pacers 1321 (25th of 30), Wizards 1301 (28th). The Pacers are 2-6 in the Central; the Wizards are 4-3 in the Southeast. The Pacers have won 1 of their last 5; the Wizards 2 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Pacers won 3, the Wizards 3.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Washington Wizards
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Atlanta Hawks | L 105–120 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Orlando Magic | W 103–94 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Charlotte Hornets | W 95–79 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Cleveland Cavaliers | L 111–121 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Charlotte Hornets | L 103–110 | – | – | matchup |
Indiana Pacers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Memphis Grizzlies | W 107–103 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Atlanta Hawks | L 104–108 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Brooklyn Nets | L 90–98 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Miami Heat | L 125–145 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Philadelphia 76ers | L 109–114 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana Pacers at Washington Wizards | 118–131 | – | – | matchup | |
| Indiana Pacers at Washington Wizards | 105–112 | – | – | matchup | |
| Washington Wizards at Indiana Pacers | 108–89 | – | – | matchup | |
| Washington Wizards at Indiana Pacers | 86–119 | – | – | matchup | |
| Washington Wizards at Indiana Pacers | 98–104 | – | – | matchup | |
| Indiana Pacers at Washington Wizards | 162–109 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Washington Wizards: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Indiana Pacers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Wizards4-3 Southeast, 5th · W2
- Wizards rating1301 28th of 30, 8 games
- Pacers2-6 Central, 3rd · L5
- Pacers rating1321 25th of 30, 9 games
National Basketball Association · Southeast · 5th · streak W2
No stances yet today on $WIZARDS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Washington Wizards bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Indiana Pacers 2-6
National Basketball Association · Central · 3rd · streak L5
No stances yet today on $PACERS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Indiana Pacers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: Pacers 57% to win. Projected score Pacers 114, Wizards 110; spread Pacers −3.5, total 224. Polymarket 52% for the Pacers. Washington Wizards at Indiana Pacers, Wed, Nov 11, 7:00 PM ET.