Charlotte Hornets vs Phoenix Suns prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerSuns 52%
- Projected scoreSuns 114, Hornets 111
- Model spreadSuns −2 total 225
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Charlotte Hornets or Phoenix Suns: the bandwagon
Axle 48–52Market 33–67
Charlotte Hornets at Phoenix Suns win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Charlotte Hornets vs Phoenix Suns live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Charlotte Hornets vs Phoenix Suns team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | CHA | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CHA– | PHX– |
| Average win probability | CHA– | PHX– |
| Longest scoring run | CHA– | PHX– |
| Time leading | CHA– | PHX– |
Charlotte Hornets vs Phoenix Suns model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | PHX win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 11:46 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 11:46 PM ET | 52% | −2 |
| Nov 4, 11:36 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 11:11 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 11:06 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 10:26 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 10:21 PM ET | 54% | +2 |
| Nov 4, 9:30 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:54 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:39 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:35 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:04 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:41 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:32 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:12 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:07 PM ET | 52% | +4 |
| Nov 2, 10:02 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:57 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:36 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 11:40 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 11:00 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 7:51 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 6:07 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 48% | −4 |
| Oct 31, 8:41 PM ET | 52% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 12:36 AM ET | 51% | −2 |
| Oct 30, 10:41 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 10:26 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 9:36 PM ET | 53% | +4 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 49% | +4 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 45% | — |
- Ratings
- PHX 1468 · CHA 1483
- Home spread
- −2
- Stored
- Nov 4, 11:46 PM ET · 2026-11-05 04:46 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
- Last move
- spread −2.5 → −2, total 224.5 → 225, home 54% → 52%
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In National Basketball Association a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past National Basketball Association seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Hornets vs Suns odds on Polymarket
Every NBA marketPolymarket prices the Suns at 67%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 52%.
Prices read: Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | CHA | PHX | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 33% | 67% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 48% | 52% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Charlotte Hornets vs Phoenix Suns prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Suns a 2-point favorite at home, with a 52% chance to win. The model total is 225. Ratings: Suns 1486 (18th of 30), Hornets 1503 (15th). The Suns are 1-4 in the Pacific; the Hornets are 3-5 in the Southeast. The Suns have won 1 of their last 5; the Hornets 0 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Suns won 4, the Hornets 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Charlotte Hornets
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Brooklyn Nets | L 104–114 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Detroit Pistons | L 91–124 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Philadelphia 76ers | L 104–109 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Washington Wizards | L 79–95 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Detroit Pistons | L 89–97 | – | – | matchup |
Phoenix Suns
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Portland Trail Blazers | L 119–132 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Golden State Warriors | L 113–116 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Denver Nuggets | L 120–127 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Oklahoma City Thunder | L 114–125 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Golden State Warriors | W 131–122 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phoenix Suns at Charlotte Hornets | 107–127 | – | – | matchup | |
| Charlotte Hornets at Phoenix Suns | 99–111 | – | – | matchup | |
| Charlotte Hornets at Phoenix Suns | 113–120 | – | – | matchup | |
| Phoenix Suns at Charlotte Hornets | 104–115 | – | – | matchup | |
| Phoenix Suns at Charlotte Hornets | 107–96 | – | – | matchup | |
| Charlotte Hornets at Phoenix Suns | 119–133 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Charlotte Hornets: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Phoenix Suns: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Hornets3-5 Southeast, 3rd · L4
- Hornets rating1503 15th of 30, 8 games
- Suns1-4 Pacific, 3rd · L3
- Suns rating1486 18th of 30, 5 games
National Basketball Association · Southeast · 3rd · streak L4
No stances yet today on $HORNETS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Charlotte Hornets bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Phoenix Suns 1-4
National Basketball Association · Pacific · 3rd · streak L3
No stances yet today on $SUNS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Phoenix Suns bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Charlotte Hornets at Phoenix Suns
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Model: Suns 52% to win. Projected score Suns 114, Hornets 111; spread Suns −2, total 225. Polymarket 67% for the Suns. Charlotte Hornets at Phoenix Suns, Thu, Nov 12, 9:00 PM ET.