Toronto Raptors vs Philadelphia 76ers prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winner76ers 67%
- Projected score76ers 116, Raptors 110
- Model spread76ers −6.5 total 225.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Toronto Raptors or Philadelphia 76ers: the bandwagon
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Axle 33–67Market 41–59
Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Toronto Raptors vs Philadelphia 76ers live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Toronto Raptors vs Philadelphia 76ers team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | TOR | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TOR– | PHI– |
| Average win probability | TOR– | PHI– |
| Longest scoring run | TOR– | PHI– |
| Time leading | TOR– | PHI– |
Toronto Raptors vs Philadelphia 76ers model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | PHI win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:59 AM ET | 67% | −1 |
| Nov 3, 12:54 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:39 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:35 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:09 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:04 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:41 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:32 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:12 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:02 PM ET | 68% | +1 |
| Nov 2, 9:36 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 11:40 PM ET | 67% | +2 |
| Nov 1, 7:51 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 6:07 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 65% | +4 |
| Oct 31, 8:41 PM ET | 61% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 10:26 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 10:11 PM ET | 60% | +4 |
| Oct 30, 9:36 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 56% | — |
- Ratings
- PHI 1588 · TOR 1550
- Home spread
- −6.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In National Basketball Association a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past National Basketball Association seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Raptors vs 76ers odds on Polymarket
Every NBA marketPolymarket prices the 76ers at 59%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 67%.
Prices read: Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | TOR | PHI | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 41% | 59% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 33% | 67% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Toronto Raptors vs Philadelphia 76ers prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the 76ers a 6.5-point favorite at home, with a 67% chance to win. The model total is 225.5. Ratings: 76ers 1588 (9th of 30), Raptors 1550 (13th). The 76ers are 6-1 in the Atlantic; the Raptors are 3-3 in the Atlantic. The 76ers have won 4 of their last 5; the Raptors 2 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the 76ers won 2, the Raptors 4.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Toronto Raptors
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at LA Clippers | W 125–118 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Los Angeles Lakers | L 125–131 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Orlando Magic | L 114–121 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Orlando Magic | W 129–99 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Minnesota Timberwolves | L 94–117 | – | – | matchup |
Philadelphia 76ers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Chicago Bulls | W 126–107 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Charlotte Hornets | W 109–104 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New York Knicks | W 98–93 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Indiana Pacers | W 114–109 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Detroit Pistons | L 93–106 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia 76ers at Toronto Raptors | 115–102 | – | – | matchup | |
| Philadelphia 76ers at Toronto Raptors | 115–116 | – | – | matchup | |
| Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers | 121–112 | – | – | matchup | |
| Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers | 120–130 | – | – | matchup | |
| Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers | 127–109 | – | – | matchup | |
| Philadelphia 76ers at Toronto Raptors | 105–118 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Toronto Raptors: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Philadelphia 76ers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Raptors3-3 Atlantic, 3rd · L2
- Raptors rating1550 13th of 30, 7 games
- 76ers6-1 Atlantic, 5th · W3
- 76ers rating1588 9th of 30, 8 games
Toronto Raptors 3-3
National Basketball Association · Atlantic · 3rd · streak L2
No stances yet today on $RAPTORS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Toronto Raptors bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
National Basketball Association · Atlantic · 5th · streak W3
2 stances today on $76ERS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Philadelphia 76ers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers
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Model: 76ers 67% to win. Projected score 76ers 116, Raptors 110; spread 76ers −6.5, total 225.5. Polymarket 59% for the 76ers. Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers, Thu, Nov 12, 7:00 PM ET.