Philadelphia 76ers vs Cleveland Cavaliers prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerCavaliers 54%
- Projected scoreCavaliers 115, 76ers 112
- Model spreadCavaliers −3 total 227
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Philadelphia 76ers or Cleveland Cavaliers: the bandwagon
Axle 46–54Market 50–50
Philadelphia 76ers at Cleveland Cavaliers win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Philadelphia 76ers vs Cleveland Cavaliers live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Philadelphia 76ers vs Cleveland Cavaliers team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | PHI | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PHI– | CLE– |
| Average win probability | PHI– | CLE– |
| Longest scoring run | PHI– | CLE– |
| Time leading | PHI– | CLE– |
Philadelphia 76ers vs Cleveland Cavaliers model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | CLE win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:59 AM ET | 54% | −1 |
| Nov 3, 12:54 AM ET | 55% | +1 |
| Nov 3, 12:39 AM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:35 PM ET | 54% | −1 |
| Nov 2, 11:04 PM ET | 55% | +1 |
| Nov 2, 10:41 PM ET | 54% | −1 |
| Nov 2, 10:07 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:02 PM ET | 55% | −1 |
| Nov 2, 9:57 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:36 PM ET | 56% | −1 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 11:40 PM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 11:00 PM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 7:51 PM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:21 PM ET | 57% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 8:41 PM ET | 56% | −1 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 10:26 PM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 10:11 PM ET | 57% | −1 |
| Oct 30, 9:36 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:32 PM ET | 58% | −1 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 59% | +1 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 2:00 AM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:06 AM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:41 AM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:09 AM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:54 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 58% | — |
- Ratings
- CLE 1580 · PHI 1588
- Home spread
- −3
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In National Basketball Association a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past National Basketball Association seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries in the data, not usedplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores · read Nov 3, 10:02 AM UTC
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
76ers vs Cavaliers odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NBA marketKalshi prices the Cavaliers at 49%, Polymarket at 50% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 54%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | PHI | CLE | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 51% | 49% | ||
| Polymarket | 50% | 50% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 46% | 54% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Philadelphia 76ers vs Cleveland Cavaliers prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Cavaliers a 3-point favorite at home, with a 54% chance to win. The model total is 227. Ratings: Cavaliers 1580 (10th of 30), 76ers 1588 (9th). The Cavaliers are 4-3 in the Central; the 76ers are 7-1 in the Atlantic. The Cavaliers have won 3 of their last 5; the 76ers 4 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Cavaliers won 4, the 76ers 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Philadelphia 76ers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Chicago Bulls | W 126–107 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Charlotte Hornets | W 109–104 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New York Knicks | W 98–93 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Indiana Pacers | W 114–109 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Detroit Pistons | L 93–106 | – | – | matchup |
Cleveland Cavaliers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Oklahoma City Thunder | L 112–117 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Milwaukee Bucks | W 136–111 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Atlanta Hawks | L 111–114 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Washington Wizards | W 121–111 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Minnesota Timberwolves | W 127–125 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Cavaliers at Philadelphia 76ers | 106–114 | – | – | matchup | |
| Philadelphia 76ers at Cleveland Cavaliers | 101–115 | – | – | matchup | |
| Cleveland Cavaliers at Philadelphia 76ers | 117–115 | – | – | matchup | |
| Cleveland Cavaliers at Philadelphia 76ers | 133–107 | – | – | matchup | |
| Philadelphia 76ers at Cleveland Cavaliers | 121–132 | – | – | matchup | |
| Cleveland Cavaliers at Philadelphia 76ers | 129–132 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Philadelphia 76ers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Cleveland Cavaliers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- 76ers7-1 Atlantic, 5th · W4
- 76ers rating1588 9th of 30, 8 games
- Cavaliers4-3 Central, 4th · L1
- Cavaliers rating1580 10th of 30, 7 games
National Basketball Association · Atlantic · 5th · streak W4
1 stance today on $76ERS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Philadelphia 76ers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
National Basketball Association · Central · 4th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $CAVALIERS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Cleveland Cavaliers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: Cavaliers 54% to win. Projected score Cavaliers 115, 76ers 112; spread Cavaliers −3, total 227. Kalshi 49%, Polymarket 50% for the Cavaliers. Philadelphia 76ers at Cleveland Cavaliers, Fri, Nov 6, 7:30 PM ET.