Memphis Grizzlies vs Toronto Raptors prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerRaptors 68%
- Projected scoreRaptors 118, Grizzlies 112
- Model spreadRaptors −7 total 230
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Memphis Grizzlies or Toronto Raptors: the bandwagon
Axle 32–68Market 29–71
Memphis Grizzlies at Toronto Raptors win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Memphis Grizzlies vs Toronto Raptors live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Memphis Grizzlies vs Toronto Raptors team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | MEM | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MEM– | TOR– |
| Average win probability | MEM– | TOR– |
| Longest scoring run | MEM– | TOR– |
| Time leading | MEM– | TOR– |
Memphis Grizzlies vs Toronto Raptors model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | TOR win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 1:27 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 1:27 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 12:42 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 12:30 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 11:46 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 11:36 PM ET | 68% | −2 |
| Nov 4, 11:11 PM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 10:36 PM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 10:26 PM ET | 70% | +2 |
| Nov 4, 10:21 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 10:00 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 9:30 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:59 AM ET | 68% | +1 |
| Nov 3, 12:54 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:35 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:41 PM ET | 67% | +1 |
| Nov 2, 10:32 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:12 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:07 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:02 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:57 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:36 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 11:40 PM ET | 66% | −2 |
| Nov 1, 11:00 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 6:07 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 68% | −3 |
| Oct 31, 10:36 PM ET | 71% | −1 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 10:26 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 10:11 PM ET | 72% | −2 |
| Oct 30, 9:36 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 12:20 AM ET | 74% | −3 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 77% | −4 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 2:00 AM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:06 AM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:41 AM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:09 AM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:54 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 81% | — |
- Ratings
- TOR 1538 · MEM 1392
- Home spread
- −7
- Stored
- Nov 5, 1:27 AM ET · 2026-11-05 06:27 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In National Basketball Association a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past National Basketball Association seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Grizzlies vs Raptors odds on Polymarket
Every NBA marketPolymarket prices the Raptors at 71%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 68%.
Prices read: Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | MEM | TOR | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 29% | 71% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 32% | 68% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Memphis Grizzlies vs Toronto Raptors prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Raptors a 7-point favorite at home, with a 68% chance to win. The model total is 230. Ratings: Raptors 1550 (13th of 30), Grizzlies 1405 (23rd). The Raptors are 4-3 in the Atlantic; the Grizzlies are 6-1 in the Southwest. The Raptors have won 2 of their last 5; the Grizzlies 3 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Raptors won 3, the Grizzlies 3.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Memphis Grizzlies
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Indiana Pacers | L 103–107 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New Orleans Pelicans | L 134–135 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Sacramento Kings | W 136–105 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Portland Trail Blazers | W 124–103 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Utah Jazz | W 110–105 | – | – | matchup |
Toronto Raptors
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Denver Nuggets | L 109–128 | – | – | matchup | |
| at LA Clippers | W 125–118 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Los Angeles Lakers | L 125–131 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Orlando Magic | L 114–121 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Orlando Magic | W 129–99 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Raptors at Memphis Grizzlies | 128–96 | – | – | matchup | |
| Memphis Grizzlies at Toronto Raptors | 104–117 | – | – | matchup | |
| Memphis Grizzlies at Toronto Raptors | 138–107 | – | – | matchup | |
| Toronto Raptors at Memphis Grizzlies | 126–155 | – | – | matchup | |
| Memphis Grizzlies at Toronto Raptors | 108–100 | – | – | matchup | |
| Toronto Raptors at Memphis Grizzlies | 116–111 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Memphis Grizzlies: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Toronto Raptors: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Grizzlies6-1 Southwest, 4th · L1
- Grizzlies rating1405 23rd of 30, 7 games
- Raptors4-3 Atlantic, 3rd · W1
- Raptors rating1550 13th of 30, 7 games
National Basketball Association · Southwest · 4th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $GRIZZLIES: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Memphis Grizzlies bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Toronto Raptors 4-3
National Basketball Association · Atlantic · 3rd · streak W1
No stances yet today on $RAPTORS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Toronto Raptors bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Memphis Grizzlies at Toronto Raptors
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Model: Raptors 68% to win. Projected score Raptors 118, Grizzlies 112; spread Raptors −7, total 230. Polymarket 71% for the Raptors. Memphis Grizzlies at Toronto Raptors, Mon, Nov 9, 7:30 PM ET.