UTSA Roadrunners vs Florida Atlantic Owls prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerUTSA 78%
- Projected scoreUTSA 37, Florida Atlantic 24
- Model spreadUTSA −12.5 total 61
- Crowd's pick2 picks so far
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
UTSA Roadrunners or Florida Atlantic Owls: the bandwagon
Axle 78–22Market 71–29
UTSA Roadrunners at Florida Atlantic Owls win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
UTSA Roadrunners vs Florida Atlantic Owls live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
UTSA Roadrunners vs Florida Atlantic Owls team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | UTSA | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UTSA– | FAU– |
| Average win probability | UTSA– | FAU– |
| Longest scoring run | UTSA– | FAU– |
| Time leading | UTSA– | FAU– |
UTSA Roadrunners vs Florida Atlantic Owls model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | FAU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:24 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 22% | −2 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 24% | −2 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 26% | — |
- Ratings
- FAU 1420 · UTSA 1650
- Home spread
- +12.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:31 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:34 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
2 picks so far; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
UTSA vs Florida Atlantic odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Roadrunners at 71%, Polymarket at 71%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 78%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | UTSA | FAU | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 71% | 29% | ||
| Polymarket | 71% | 29% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 78% | 22% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
UTSA Roadrunners vs Florida Atlantic Owls prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Roadrunners a 12.5-point favorite, with a 78% chance to win. The model total is 61. Ratings: Owls 1420 (95th of 138), Roadrunners 1650 (22nd). The Owls have won 3 of their last 5; the Roadrunners 5 of their last 5. The two have met 2 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Owls won 0, the Roadrunners 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
UTSA Roadrunners
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Tulane Green Wave | W 42–19 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Navy Midshipmen | W 38–34 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs South Florida Bulls | W 31–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Rice Owls | W 16–14 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Colorado State Rams | W 59–45 | – | – | matchup |
Florida Atlantic Owls
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at North Texas Mean Green | L 41–48 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Rice Owls | W 51–49 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Army Black Knights | L 24–56 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UL Monroe Warhawks | W 45–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Florida International Panthers | W 16–10 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida Atlantic Owls at UTSA Roadrunners | 24–38 | – | – | matchup | |
| UTSA Roadrunners at Florida Atlantic Owls | 36–10 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
UTSA Roadrunners: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Florida Atlantic Owls: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Roadrunners– 1st · W5
- Roadrunners rating1650 22nd of 138, 7 games
- Owls– 6th · L1
- Owls rating1420 95th of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 1st · streak W5
No stances yet today on $UTSA: the share of the crowd ▲ on the UTSA Roadrunners bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 6th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $FAU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Florida Atlantic Owls bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: UTSA 78% to win. Projected score UTSA 37, Florida Atlantic 24; spread UTSA −12.5, total 61. Kalshi 71%, Polymarket 71% for UTSA. UTSA Roadrunners at Florida Atlantic Owls, Thu, Nov 5, 7:30 PM ET.