Florida Atlantic Owls vs North Texas Mean Green: final score and how the prediction did, October 29, 2026
- Final scoreFlorida Atlantic 41, North Texas 48 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerNorth Texas 84%
- Pregame Projected scoreNorth Texas 40, Florida Atlantic 24
- Model spreadNorth Texas −16.5 total 63.5
- Margin7 projected 16.5
- Total89 projected 63.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Florida Atlantic Owls or North Texas Mean Green: the bandwagon
Axle 16–84Market 17–84
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FAU | 10 | 14 | 7 | 10 | 41 |
| UNT | 3 | 21 | 17 | 7 | 48 |
Florida Atlantic Owls at North Texas Mean Green win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Florida Atlantic Owls vs North Texas Mean Green live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | FAU | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | FAU523 | UNT644 |
| First downs | FAU29 | UNT31 |
| 3rd down | FAU10/18 | UNT8/14 |
| 4th down | FAU2/4 | UNT1/2 |
| Turnovers | FAU2 | UNT2 |
| Penalties-yards | FAU7-58 | UNT8-60 |
| Time of possession | FAU24:55 | UNT34:36 |
Florida Atlantic Owls vs North Texas Mean Green team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | FAU | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| Score | FAU41 | UNT48 |
| Average win probability | FAU16% | UNT84% |
| Longest scoring run | FAU+13 | UNT+10 |
| Time leading | FAU15:42 | UNT29:55 |
Florida Atlantic Owls vs North Texas Mean Green model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | UNT win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 84% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 84% | −2 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 86% | — |
- Ratings
- UNT 1610 · FAU 1429
- Home spread
- −16.5
- Stored
- Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET · 2026-10-30 02:26 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
- Last move
- spread −18 → −16.5, total 63 → 63.5, home 86% → 84%
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Florida Atlantic Owls 41, North Texas Mean Green 48. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · A previous venue or its coordinates is not storeddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Oct 29, 10:38 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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1 pick so far; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Florida Atlantic vs North Texas odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi had Mean Green at 84% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 84% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 86% when last read, .
| Source | FAU | UNT | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 17% | 84% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 17% | 84% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 16% | 84% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Florida Atlantic Owls vs North Texas Mean Green prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Mean Green a 16.5-point favorite at home, with a 84% chance to win. The model total is 63.5. Ratings: Mean Green 1619 (30th of 138), Owls 1420 (95th). The Mean Green have won 4 of their last 5; the Owls 3 of their last 5. The two have met 2 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Mean Green won 2, the Owls 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Florida Atlantic Owls
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at North Texas Mean Green | L 41–48 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Rice Owls | W 51–49 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Army Black Knights | L 24–56 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UL Monroe Warhawks | W 45–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Florida International Panthers | W 16–10 | – | – | matchup |
North Texas Mean Green
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Florida Atlantic Owls | W 48–41 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Navy Midshipmen | W 49–39 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Charlotte 49ers | W 50–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Tulsa Golden Hurricane | W 45–44 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Texas State Bobcats | L 35–49 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Texas Mean Green at Florida Atlantic Owls | 41–37 | – | – | matchup | |
| Florida Atlantic Owls at North Texas Mean Green | 28–45 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Florida Atlantic Owls: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
North Texas Mean Green: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Owls– 6th · L1
- Owls rating1420 95th of 138, 7 games
- Mean Green– 3rd · W5
- Mean Green rating1619 30th of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 6th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $FAU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Florida Atlantic Owls bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 3rd · streak W5
No stances yet today on $UNT: the share of the crowd ▲ on the North Texas Mean Green bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Final: Florida Atlantic 41, North Texas 48. Bandwagon's model had the North Texas at 84% and projected North Texas 40, Florida Atlantic 24; spread North Texas −16.5, total 63.5. Last read: Kalshi 84%, Polymarket 84% for North Texas.