San Francisco 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winner49ers 68%
- Projected score49ers 27, Cowboys 22
- Model spread49ers −5 total 48.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
San Francisco 49ers or Dallas Cowboys: the bandwagon
Axle 68–32Market 65–35
San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
San Francisco 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
San Francisco 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | SF | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SF– | DAL– |
| Average win probability | SF– | DAL– |
| Longest scoring run | SF– | DAL– |
| Time leading | SF– | DAL– |
San Francisco 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | DAL win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 32% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 32% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 32% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 32% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 32% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 11:30 PM ET | 32% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 7:41 PM ET | 32% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 7:36 PM ET | 32% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:44 PM ET | 32% | −2 |
| Nov 1, 4:29 PM ET | 34% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:13 PM ET | 34% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:08 PM ET | 34% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 3:53 PM ET | 34% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 34% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 34% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 34% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 34% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 34% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 9:54 PM ET | 34% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 8:05 PM ET | 34% | +8 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:40 AM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 26% | — |
- Ratings
- DAL 1447 · SF 1620
- Home spread
- +5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In National Football League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Roofed venueforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
49ers vs Cowboys odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NFL marketKalshi prices the 49ers at 65%, Polymarket at 65%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 68%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | SF | DAL | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 65% | 35% | ||
| Polymarket | 65% | 35% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 68% | 32% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
San Francisco 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the 49ers a 5-point favorite, with a 68% chance to win. The model total is 48.5. Ratings: Cowboys 1447 (20th of 32), 49ers 1620 (4th). The Cowboys are 3-5 in the NFC East; the 49ers are 6-1 in the NFC West. The Cowboys have won 2 of their last 5; the 49ers 4 of their last 5. The two have met 3 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Cowboys won 0, the 49ers 3. The roster source lists 8 Cowboys and 16 49ers players as injured.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
San Francisco 49ers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Atlanta Falcons | L 20–29 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Washington Commanders | W 23–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Seattle Seahawks | W 32–29 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Denver Broncos | W 24–14 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Arizona Cardinals | W 36–30 | – | – | matchup |
Dallas Cowboys
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Arizona Cardinals | L 30–33 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Philadelphia Eagles | W 38–21 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Green Bay Packers | L 13–23 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers | L 16–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Houston Texans | W 34–30 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers | 24–30 | – | – | matchup | |
| Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers | 10–42 | – | – | matchup | |
| Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers | 12–19 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
San Francisco 49ers: Ricky Pearsall WR, Demarcus Robinson WR, Isaac Guerendo RB, Nate Hobbs CB, C.J. West DT, Alfred Collins DT, Jake Tonges TE, Nick Martin LB, Sam Okuayinonu DT, Andrew Farmer II DE, Darrick Forrest S, Mikail Kamara DE, Austen Pleasants OT, De'Zhaun Stribling WR, Brett Toth C, Nick Zakelj OT
Dallas Cowboys: Marist Liufau LB, Jalen Thompson S, Jonathan Bullard DT, Malik Davis RB, Princeton Fant TE, Kelvin Gilliam Jr. DT, Matt Hennessy C, Devin Moore CB
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- 49ers6-1 NFC West, 1st · L1
- 49ers rating1620 4th of 32, 7 games
- Cowboys3-5 NFC East, 2nd · L1
- Cowboys rating1447 20th of 32, 8 games
National Football League · NFC West · 1st · streak L1
No stances yet today on $49ERS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the San Francisco 49ers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Dallas Cowboys 3-5
National Football League · NFC East · 2nd · streak L1
No stances yet today on $COWBOYS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Dallas Cowboys bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: 49ers 68% to win. Projected score 49ers 27, Cowboys 22; spread 49ers −5, total 48.5. Kalshi 65%, Polymarket 65% for the 49ers. San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys, Sun, Nov 15, 4:25 PM ET.