National Football League odds this week
Win chance, spread and total for every game. Today's National Football League predictions · Standings · every league
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers. How the model works · Axle 2.0 · Betting guide
National Football League odds Thursday, November 5
1 game| Game | Kick (ET) | Axle win | Spread | Total | Moneyline (away / home) | Movement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars at Ravens | Jaguars 60% | Jaguars −2.5 | 45.5 | −152 / +152 | no move | Matchup |
National Football League odds Sunday, November 8
13 games| Game | Kick (ET) | Axle win | Spread | Total | Moneyline (away / home) | Movement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals at Falcons neutral site | Bengals 66% | Bengals −4.5 | 47 | −193 / +193 | no move | Matchup | |
| Broncos at Panthers | Broncos 72% | Broncos −6.5 | 46.5 | −254 / +254 | no move | Matchup | |
| Browns at Saints | Saints 50% | Saints −0.5 | 45 | −101 / +101 | no move | Matchup | |
| Cowboys at Colts | Cowboys 51% | PK | 48.5 | −104 / +104 | no move | Matchup | |
| Giants at Eagles | Eagles 51% | Eagles −0.5 | 44.5 | +104 / −104 | no move | Matchup | |
| Jets at Chiefs | Chiefs 80% | Chiefs −10.5 | 44 | +408 / −408 | no move | Matchup | |
| Lions at Dolphins | Lions 72% | Lions −6.5 | 47 | −255 / +255 | no move | Matchup | |
| Rams at Commanders | Rams 66% | Rams −4 | 46 | −190 / +190 | no move | Matchup | |
| Texans at Chargers | Texans 61% | Texans −3 | 44 | −156 / +156 | no move | Matchup | |
| Cardinals at Seahawks | Seahawks 82% | Seahawks −11.5 | 46.5 | +467 / −467 | no move | Matchup | |
| Packers at Patriots | Patriots 63% | Patriots −4.5 | 43.5 | +172 / −172 | no move | Matchup | |
| Raiders at 49ers | 49ers 80% | 49ers −10.5 | 49 | +394 / −394 | no move | Matchup | |
| Buccaneers at Bears | Bears 71% | Bears −7 | 44.5 | +242 / −242 | no move | Matchup |
National Football League odds Monday, November 9
1 game| Game | Kick (ET) | Axle win | Spread | Total | Moneyline (away / home) | Movement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills at Vikings | Bills 52% | PK | 45.5 | −108 / +108 | no move | Matchup |
National Football League odds Thursday, November 12
1 game| Game | Kick (ET) | Axle win | Spread | Total | Moneyline (away / home) | Movement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders at Giants | Giants 58% | Giants −2.5 | 46.5 | +137 / −137 | no move | Matchup |
National Football League odds Sunday, November 15
12 games| Game | Kick (ET) | Axle win | Spread | Total | Moneyline (away / home) | Movement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots at Lions neutral site | Patriots 54% | Patriots −1 | 47.5 | −118 / +118 | no move | Matchup | |
| Bills at Jets | Bills 84% | Bills −11.5 | 49 | −507 / +507 | no move | Matchup | |
| Chiefs at Falcons | Chiefs 59% | Chiefs −2 | 44.5 | −141 / +141 | no move | Matchup | |
| Dolphins at Colts | Colts 59% | Colts −3 | 45 | +144 / −144 | no move | Matchup | |
| Jaguars at Titans | Jaguars 83% | Jaguars −11 | 44 | −475 / +475 | no move | Matchup | |
| Panthers at Saints | Saints 52% | Saints −1 | 49 | +106 / −106 | no move | Matchup | |
| Texans at Browns | Texans 55% | Texans −1 | 44 | −123 / +123 | no move | Matchup | |
| Vikings at Packers | Vikings 55% | Vikings −1 | 40.5 | −125 / +125 | no move | Matchup | |
| Rams at Cardinals | Rams 71% | Rams −6 | 47 | −247 / +247 | no move | Matchup | |
| Seahawks at Raiders | Seahawks 73% | Seahawks −7 | 48 | −272 / +272 | no move | Matchup | |
| 49ers at Cowboys | 49ers 68% | 49ers −5 | 48.5 | −212 / +212 | no move | Matchup | |
| Steelers at Bengals | Bengals 54% | Bengals −1.5 | 46 | +117 / −117 | no move | Matchup |
National Football League odds Monday, November 16
1 game| Game | Kick (ET) | Axle win | Spread | Total | Moneyline (away / home) | Movement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers at Ravens | Ravens 69% | Ravens −6 | 44 | +219 / −219 | no move | Matchup |
How these lines are made
In National Football League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal inputs
- Ratings from results used in 29 of 29
an Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results - Home advantage used in 29 of 29
the league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results - Schedule in the data but not used for 29
rest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures - Recent form in the data but not used for 29
average margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External inputs
- Injuries in the data but not used for 1 · unavailable for 28 (More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that window)
players listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores · newest read Nov 4, 9:30 AM UTC - Travel and time zones in the data but not used for 25 · unavailable for 4 (Neutral site; A previous venue or its coordinates is not stored)
distance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · newest read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC - Weather in the data but not used for 18 · unavailable for 11 (Neutral site; Roofed venue)
forecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · newest read Nov 4, 10:03 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
National Football League team ratings
The Elo-style ratings the lines are made from, after the latest results. The league mean is 1500.
| # | Team | Rating | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buffalo Bills | 1668 | 7 |
| 2 | Denver Broncos | 1634 | 8 |
| 3 | Seattle Seahawks | 1628 | 8 |
| 4 | San Francisco 49ers | 1620 | 7 |
| 5 | Minnesota Vikings | 1616 | 7 |
| 6 | Chicago Bears | 1615 | 8 |
| 7 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 1615 | 7 |
| 8 | New England Patriots | 1599 | 8 |
| 9 | Los Angeles Rams | 1589 | 8 |
| 10 | Detroit Lions | 1580 | 7 |
| 11 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 1571 | 8 |
| 12 | Cincinnati Bengals | 1562 | 7 |
Top 12 of 32; every team's rating is on its page.
National Football League model record
Over 976 National Football League games in 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, scored before each result was known: the favored side won 64% of the time, Brier score 0.2236, mean spread error 10.221 points, mean total error 10.664. Calibration and method.
Bandwagon's model lines for National Football League games this week: win probability, spread, total and moneyline for each game, movement since the last line, and the team ratings behind them. Not a sportsbook.