Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerBills 84%
- Projected scoreBills 30, Jets 19
- Model spreadBills −11.5 total 49
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Buffalo Bills or New York Jets: the bandwagon
Axle 84–16Market 80–20
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | BUF | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BUF– | NYJ– |
| Average win probability | BUF– | NYJ– |
| Longest scoring run | BUF– | NYJ– |
| Time leading | BUF– | NYJ– |
Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | NYJ win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 16% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 16% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 16% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 16% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 16% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 11:30 PM ET | 16% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 7:41 PM ET | 16% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 7:36 PM ET | 16% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:44 PM ET | 16% | −1 |
| Nov 1, 4:29 PM ET | 17% | −1 |
| Nov 1, 4:13 PM ET | 18% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:08 PM ET | 18% | −1 |
| Nov 1, 3:53 PM ET | 19% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 19% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 19% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 19% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 19% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 19% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 9:54 PM ET | 19% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 8:05 PM ET | 19% | +3 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 16% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 16% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:40 AM ET | 16% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 16% | — |
- Ratings
- NYJ 1339 · BUF 1668
- Home spread
- +11.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In National Football League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:34 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Bills vs Jets odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NFL marketKalshi prices the Bills at 81%, Polymarket at 80% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 84%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | BUF | NYJ | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 81% | 19% | ||
| Polymarket | 80% | 20% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 84% | 16% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Bills a 11.5-point favorite, with a 84% chance to win. The model total is 49. Ratings: Jets 1339 (31st of 32), Bills 1668 (1st). The Jets are 2-6 in the AFC East; the Bills are 6-1 in the AFC East. The Jets have won 1 of their last 5; the Bills 4 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Jets won 1, the Bills 5. The roster source lists 13 Jets and 4 Bills players as injured.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Buffalo Bills
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Baltimore Ravens | W 36–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Las Vegas Raiders | W 33–30 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Los Angeles Rams | W 37–34 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New England Patriots | L 26–29 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Los Angeles Chargers | W 24–16 | – | – | matchup |
New York Jets
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Las Vegas Raiders | L 33–38 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Miami Dolphins | L 25–28 | – | – | matchup | |
| at New England Patriots | L 19–26 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Cleveland Browns | W 17–12 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Chicago Bears | L 12–23 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Jets at Buffalo Bills | 8–35 | – | – | matchup | |
| Buffalo Bills at New York Jets | 30–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| New York Jets at Buffalo Bills | 14–40 | – | – | matchup | |
| Buffalo Bills at New York Jets | 23–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| New York Jets at Buffalo Bills | 6–32 | – | – | matchup | |
| Buffalo Bills at New York Jets | 16–22 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Buffalo Bills: Tyrell Shavers WR, Jordan Hancock CB, Dorian Strong CB, Zane Durant DT
New York Jets: T'Vondre Sweat DT, Tim Patrick WR, Braiden McGregor DE, David Onyemata DT, Arian Smith WR, Tyler Baron DE, Kingsley Jonathan DE, Marcelino McCrary-Ball LB, Anez Cooper G, Caullin Lacy WR, Max Mitchell OT, VJ Payne S, Chip Trayanum RB
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Bills6-1 AFC East, 1st · W3
- Bills rating1668 1st of 32, 7 games
- Jets2-6 AFC East, 3rd · L3
- Jets rating1339 31st of 32, 8 games
Buffalo Bills 6-1
National Football League · AFC East · 1st · streak W3
No stances yet today on $BILLS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Buffalo Bills bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
New York Jets 2-6
National Football League · AFC East · 3rd · streak L3
No stances yet today on $JETS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the New York Jets bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: Bills 84% to win. Projected score Bills 30, Jets 19; spread Bills −11.5, total 49. Kalshi 81%, Polymarket 80% for the Bills. Buffalo Bills at New York Jets, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET.