Bills 36, Ravens 10, and the game ended with nobody in the Bandwagon crowd picking a side. The model had Buffalo at 72 percent, and the final margin of 26 is the only number that matters now.
NFL · · Ralph Wilson Stadium · every National Football League line
Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills: final score and how the prediction did, November 1, 2026
- Final scoreRavens 10, Bills 36 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerBills 72%
- Pregame Projected scoreBills 29, Ravens 22
- Model spreadBills −7.5 total 50.5
- Margin26 projected 7.5
- Total46 projected 50.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Baltimore Ravens or Buffalo Bills: the bandwagon
Axle 28–72Market 38–62
FinalPregame: BUF 72%Baseline: BUF 89.6% (+17.6)Big swing: 12.4 ptsClutch window: none
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 7 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| BUF | 10 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 36 |
Game clock
Final
Down & distance
Final
Possession
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Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+0.0 points for BUF over the last 5:00
Big swing12.4 ptstoward BAL at 11:42 of game time
Clutch windowNonenever within 8 points in the final quarter
BaselineBUF 89.6%game average, +17.6 points from the pregame 72.0%
Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | BAL | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | BAL144 | BUF426 |
| First downs | BAL10 | BUF24 |
| 3rd down | BAL3/13 | BUF4/14 |
| 4th down | BAL0/1 | BUF4/5 |
| Turnovers | BAL3 | BUF2 |
| Penalties-yards | BAL7-38 | BUF10-87 |
| Yards per play | BAL2.9 | BUF5.6 |
| Time of possession | BAL22:24 | BUF37:36 |
| Red zone | BAL1/3 | BUF3/4 |
Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | BAL | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BAL10 | BUF36 |
| Average win probability | BAL10% | BUF90% |
| Longest scoring run | BAL+7 | BUF+20 |
| Time leading | BAL0:00 | BUF54:34 |
Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 1, 4:13 PM ET
Ravens28%
Win chanceBills72%
SpreadBUF −7.5closing model spread
Total50.5
Moneyline+259away / −259homeaway / home
Line movementBUF win chance, 15 stored lines
−1 pts for BUF between Oct 28 and Nov 1
79%67%
Oct 28Oct 30Nov 1
Every stored line
| Stored | BUF win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 4:13 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:13 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:08 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 3:53 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 9:54 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 8:05 PM ET | 72% | −1 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:40 AM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 73% | — |
- Ratings
- BUF 1652 · BAL 1518
- Home spread
- −7.5
- Stored
- Nov 1, 4:13 PM ET · 2026-11-01 21:13 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Baltimore Ravens 10, Buffalo Bills 36. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In National Football League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries in the data, not usedplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores · read Oct 31, 11:30 PM UTC
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 1, 2:58 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · 1 pick
Be the first on the bandwagon
RavensBills
Neutrals only–
RavensBills
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Bills–
1 pick so far; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Ravens vs Bills odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NFL marketKalshi had the Bills at 62% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 63% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 72% when last read, ; the two venues were 1 point apart at those reads.
| Source | BAL | BUF | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 38% | 62% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 37% | 63% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 28% | 72% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, BUF: −11Polymarket minus model, BUF: −10
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Bills a 7.5-point favorite at home, with a 72% chance to win. The model total is 50.5. Ratings: Bills 1668 (1st of 32), Ravens 1502 (16th). The Bills are 6-1 in the AFC East; the Ravens are 4-4 in the AFC North. The Bills have won 4 of their last 5; the Ravens 2 of their last 5. The two have met 4 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Bills won 3, the Ravens 1. The roster source lists 4 Bills and 8 Ravens players as injured.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Baltimore Ravens
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Buffalo Bills | L 10–36 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Cincinnati Bengals | L 13–35 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Cleveland Browns | L 10–13 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Atlanta Falcons | W 30–23 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Tennessee Titans | W 24–18 | – | – | matchup |
Buffalo Bills
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Baltimore Ravens | W 36–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Las Vegas Raiders | W 33–30 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Los Angeles Rams | W 37–34 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New England Patriots | L 26–29 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Los Angeles Chargers | W 24–16 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills | 40–41 | – | – | matchup | |
| Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills | 25–27 | – | – | matchup | |
| Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens | 10–35 | – | – | matchup | |
| Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens | 23–20 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Baltimore Ravens: Tyler Loop PK, Skylar Thompson QB, Tavius Robinson LB, Durham Smythe TE, Bilhal Kone CB, Danny Pinter C, Adam Randall RB, Jahquez Robinson S
Buffalo Bills: Tyrell Shavers WR, Jordan Hancock CB, Dorian Strong CB, Zane Durant DT
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Ravens4-4 AFC North, 4th · L3
- Ravens rating1502 16th of 32, 8 games
- Bills6-1 AFC East, 1st · W3
- Bills rating1668 1st of 32, 7 games
Baltimore Ravens 4-4
National Football League · AFC North · 4th · streak L3
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Be the first on the bandwagon2 stances so far today on $RAVENS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $RAVENS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagon2 stances so far today on $RAVENS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
2 stances today on $RAVENS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Baltimore Ravens bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Buffalo Bills 6-1
National Football League · AFC East · 1st · streak W3
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $BILLS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $BILLS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $BILLS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $BILLS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Buffalo Bills bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills
Sign in to post a take on $RAVENSBILLS261101: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
Final: Ravens 10, Bills 36. Bandwagon's model had the Bills at 72% and projected Bills 29, Ravens 22; spread Bills −7.5, total 50.5. Last read: Kalshi 62%, Polymarket 63% for the Bills.