Las Vegas Raiders vs New York Jets: final score and how the prediction did, November 1, 2026
- Final scoreRaiders 38, Jets 33
- Pregame Projected winnereven
- Pregame Projected scoreJets 24, Raiders 23
- Model spreadJets −0.5 total 46.5
- Margin5 projected 0.5
- Total71 projected 46.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Las Vegas Raiders or New York Jets: the bandwagon
Axle 50–50Market 46–54
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | 7 | 7 | 14 | 10 | 38 |
| NYJ | 6 | 17 | 7 | 3 | 33 |
Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Las Vegas Raiders vs New York Jets live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | LV | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | LV333 | NYJ439 |
| First downs | LV22 | NYJ26 |
| 3rd down | LV7/11 | NYJ4/11 |
| 4th down | LV0/1 | NYJ1/1 |
| Turnovers | LV0 | NYJ1 |
| Penalties-yards | LV5-37 | NYJ6-32 |
| Yards per play | LV5.6 | NYJ7.2 |
| Time of possession | LV29:58 | NYJ30:02 |
| Red zone | LV4/4 | NYJ2/6 |
Las Vegas Raiders vs New York Jets team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | LV | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| Score | LV38 | NYJ33 |
| Average win probability | LV48% | NYJ52% |
| Longest scoring run | LV+14 | NYJ+10 |
| Time leading | LV27:19 | NYJ30:24 |
Las Vegas Raiders vs New York Jets model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | NYJ win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 3:53 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 3:53 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 9:54 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 8:05 PM ET | 50% | +4 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:40 AM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 46% | — |
- Ratings
- NYJ 1358 · LV 1392
- Home spread
- −0.5
- Stored
- Nov 1, 3:53 PM ET · 2026-11-01 20:53 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Las Vegas Raiders 38, New York Jets 33. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In National Football League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries in the data, not usedplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores · read Oct 31, 11:30 PM UTC
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 1, 2:58 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Raiders vs Jets odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NFL marketKalshi had the Jets at 55% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 54% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 50% when last read, ; the two venues were 1 point apart at those reads.
| Source | LV | NYJ | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 46% | 55% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 47% | 54% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 50% | 50% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Las Vegas Raiders vs New York Jets prediction
Bandwagon's model has this one even: 50% for the Jets. The model total is 46.5. Ratings: Jets 1339 (31st of 32), Raiders 1411 (25th). The Jets are 2-6 in the AFC East; the Raiders are 4-4 in the AFC West. The Jets have won 1 of their last 5; the Raiders 1 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Jets won 0, the Raiders 1. The roster source lists 13 Jets and 7 Raiders players as injured.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Las Vegas Raiders
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at New York Jets | W 38–33 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Los Angeles Rams | L 21–35 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Buffalo Bills | L 30–33 | – | – | matchup | |
| at New England Patriots | L 17–45 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Kansas City Chiefs | L 27–30 | – | – | matchup |
New York Jets
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Las Vegas Raiders | L 33–38 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Miami Dolphins | L 25–28 | – | – | matchup | |
| at New England Patriots | L 19–26 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Cleveland Browns | W 17–12 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Chicago Bears | L 12–23 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Jets at Las Vegas Raiders | 12–16 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Las Vegas Raiders: Patrick Johnson DE, Carter Runyon TE, Brennan Jackson LB, Chigozie Anusiem CB, Chris Collier RB, Keyron Crawford DE, Justin Pickett G
New York Jets: T'Vondre Sweat DT, Tim Patrick WR, Braiden McGregor DE, David Onyemata DT, Arian Smith WR, Tre Brown CB, Tyler Baron DE, Kingsley Jonathan DE, Marcelino McCrary-Ball LB, Anez Cooper G, Caullin Lacy WR, VJ Payne S, Chip Trayanum RB
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Raiders4-4 AFC West, 3rd · W1
- Raiders rating1411 25th of 32, 8 games
- Jets2-6 AFC East, 3rd · L3
- Jets rating1339 31st of 32, 8 games
National Football League · AFC West · 3rd · streak W1
No stances yet today on $RAIDERS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Las Vegas Raiders bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
New York Jets 2-6
National Football League · AFC East · 3rd · streak L3
No stances yet today on $JETS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the New York Jets bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets
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Final: Raiders 38, Jets 33. Bandwagon's model had it even and projected Jets 24, Raiders 23; spread Jets −0.5, total 46.5. Last read: Kalshi 55%, Polymarket 54% for the Jets.