Kansas City Chiefs vs Atlanta Falcons prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerChiefs 59%
- Projected scoreChiefs 23, Falcons 21
- Model spreadChiefs −2 total 44.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Kansas City Chiefs or Atlanta Falcons: the bandwagon
Be the first on the bandwagon
Axle 59–41Market 63–37
Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Atlanta Falcons live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Atlanta Falcons team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | KC | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Score | KC– | ATL– |
| Average win probability | KC– | ATL– |
| Longest scoring run | KC– | ATL– |
| Time leading | KC– | ATL– |
Kansas City Chiefs vs Atlanta Falcons model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | ATL win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 11:30 PM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 7:41 PM ET | 41% | +1 |
| Nov 1, 7:36 PM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:44 PM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:29 PM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:13 PM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:08 PM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 3:53 PM ET | 40% | −3 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 9:54 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 8:05 PM ET | 43% | −1 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:40 AM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 44% | — |
- Ratings
- ATL 1454 · KC 1554
- Home spread
- +2
- Stored
- Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET · 2026-11-05 10:04 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In National Football League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · A previous venue or its coordinates is not storeddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · Roofed venueforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Chiefs vs Falcons odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NFL marketKalshi prices the Chiefs at 64%, Polymarket at 62% (2 points apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 59%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | KC | ATL | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 64% | 36% | ||
| Polymarket | 62% | 38% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 59% | 41% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Kansas City Chiefs vs Atlanta Falcons prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Chiefs a 2-point favorite, with a 59% chance to win. The model total is 44.5. Ratings: Falcons 1454 (19th of 32), Chiefs 1554 (13th). The Falcons are 3-5 in the NFC South; the Chiefs are 5-2 in the AFC West. The Falcons have won 2 of their last 5; the Chiefs 3 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Falcons won 0, the Chiefs 1. The roster source lists 10 Falcons and 10 Chiefs players as injured.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Kansas City Chiefs
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Denver Broncos | L 24–28 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Seattle Seahawks | L 3–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Los Angeles Chargers | W 22–6 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Las Vegas Raiders | W 30–27 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Miami Dolphins | W 24–10 | – | – | matchup |
Atlanta Falcons
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | L 0–16 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs San Francisco 49ers | W 29–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Chicago Bears | L 23–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Baltimore Ravens | L 23–30 | – | – | matchup | |
| at New Orleans Saints | W 45–24 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons | 22–17 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Kansas City Chiefs: Tyquan Thornton WR, L'Jarius Sneed CB, Omarr Norman-Lott DT, Brashard Smith RB, Ethan Downs LB, Jeff Caldwell WR, John Michael Gyllenborg TE, Jimmy Holiday WR, Josh Simmons OT, Matt Waletzko OT
Atlanta Falcons: Samson Ebukam DE, Trey Sermon RB, Da'Shawn Hand DT, Beaux Collins WR, JD Bertrand LB, DeAngelo Malone LB, Michael Jerrell OT, Storm Norton OT, Anterio Thompson DT, Cameron Williams OL
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Chiefs5-2 AFC West, 2nd · L2
- Chiefs rating1554 13th of 32, 7 games
- Falcons3-5 NFC South, 3rd · L1
- Falcons rating1454 19th of 32, 8 games
National Football League · AFC West · 2nd · streak L2
1 stance today on $CHIEFS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Kansas City Chiefs bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Atlanta Falcons 3-5
National Football League · NFC South · 3rd · streak L1
No stances yet today on $FALCONS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Atlanta Falcons bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons
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Model: Chiefs 59% to win. Projected score Chiefs 23, Falcons 21; spread Chiefs −2, total 44.5. Kalshi 64%, Polymarket 62% for the Chiefs. Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET.