Broncos 28, Chiefs 24, and the final number that matters is the 63 percent the model had on Denver before kickoff, which held up. No crowd picks have come in on the thread, so the bandwagon here is empty.
NFL · · Empower Field at Mile High · every National Football League line
Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos: final score and how the prediction did, November 1, 2026
- Final scoreChiefs 24, Broncos 28 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerBroncos 63%
- Pregame Projected scoreBroncos 24, Chiefs 19
- Model spreadBroncos −4.5 total 43
- Margin4 projected 4.5
- Total52 projected 43
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Kansas City Chiefs or Denver Broncos: the bandwagon
Axle 37–63Market 50–50
FinalPregame: DEN 63%Baseline: DEN 39.3% (−23.7)Big swing: 58.9 ptsClutch window: 8:55
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 7 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 24 |
| DEN | 3 | 10 | 0 | 15 | 28 |
Game clock
Final
Down & distance
Final
Possession
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Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumSwinging to DEN+87.6 points for DEN over the last 5:00
Big swing58.9 ptstoward DEN at 58:04 of game time
Clutch window8:55within 8 points in the final quarter
BaselineDEN 39.3%game average, −23.7 points from the pregame 63.1%
Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | KC | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | KC399 | DEN294 |
| First downs | KC22 | DEN21 |
| 3rd down | KC6/14 | DEN2/11 |
| 4th down | KC0/1 | DEN2/2 |
| Turnovers | KC0 | DEN0 |
| Penalties-yards | KC11-105 | DEN6-45 |
| Yards per play | KC6.0 | DEN5.2 |
| Time of possession | KC31:29 | DEN28:31 |
| Red zone | KC2/3 | DEN3/3 |
Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | KC | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Score | KC24 | DEN28 |
| Average win probability | KC61% | DEN39% |
| Longest scoring run | KC+10 | DEN+15 |
| Time leading | KC49:08 | DEN5:32 |
Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 1, 7:36 PM ET
Chiefs37%
Win chanceBroncos63%
SpreadDEN −4.5closing model spread
Total43
Moneyline+171away / −171homeaway / home
Line movementDEN win chance, 18 stored lines
−2 pts for DEN between Oct 28 and Nov 1
70%57%
Oct 28Oct 30Nov 1
Every stored line
| Stored | DEN win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 7:36 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 7:36 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:44 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:29 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:13 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:08 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 3:53 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 9:54 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 8:05 PM ET | 63% | −2 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:40 AM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 65% | — |
- Ratings
- DEN 1624 · KC 1565
- Home spread
- −4.5
- Stored
- Nov 1, 7:36 PM ET · 2026-11-02 00:36 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Kansas City Chiefs 24, Denver Broncos 28. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In National Football League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries in the data, not usedplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores · read Oct 31, 11:30 PM UTC
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 1, 2:58 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · 2 picks
Be the first on the bandwagon
ChiefsBroncos
Neutrals only–
ChiefsBroncos
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Broncos–
2 picks so far; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Chiefs vs Broncos odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NFL marketKalshi had the Broncos at 51% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 49% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 63% when last read, ; the two venues were 2 points apart at those reads.
| Source | KC | DEN | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 49% | 51% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 51% | 49% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 37% | 63% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, DEN: −13Polymarket minus model, DEN: −14
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Broncos a 4.5-point favorite at home, with a 63% chance to win. The model total is 43. Ratings: Broncos 1634 (2nd of 32), Chiefs 1554 (13th). The Broncos are 6-2 in the AFC West; the Chiefs are 5-2 in the AFC West. The Broncos have won 4 of their last 5; the Chiefs 3 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Broncos won 4, the Chiefs 2. The roster source lists 10 Broncos and 10 Chiefs players as injured.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Kansas City Chiefs
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Denver Broncos | L 24–28 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Seattle Seahawks | L 3–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Los Angeles Chargers | W 22–6 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Las Vegas Raiders | W 30–27 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Miami Dolphins | W 24–10 | – | – | matchup |
Denver Broncos
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Kansas City Chiefs | W 28–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Arizona Cardinals | W 30–16 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Seattle Seahawks | W 17–14 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Los Angeles Chargers | W 23–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| at San Francisco 49ers | L 14–24 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs | 10–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs | 20–13 | – | – | matchup | |
| Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos | 19–22 | – | – | matchup | |
| Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos | 0–38 | – | – | matchup | |
| Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs | 14–16 | – | – | matchup | |
| Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos | 9–24 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Kansas City Chiefs: Tyquan Thornton WR, L'Jarius Sneed CB, Omarr Norman-Lott DT, Brashard Smith RB, Ethan Downs LB, Jeff Caldwell WR, John Michael Gyllenborg TE, Jimmy Holiday WR, Josh Simmons OT, Matt Waletzko OT
Denver Broncos: RJ Harvey RB, Jonah Elliss LB, Pat Bryant WR, Tyler Badie RB, Caleb Lohner TE, Levelle Bailey LB, Frank Crum OT, Michael Deiter C, Nick Gargiulo G, Matt Henningsen DE
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Chiefs5-2 AFC West, 2nd · L2
- Chiefs rating1554 13th of 32, 7 games
- Broncos6-2 AFC West, 1st · W4
- Broncos rating1634 2nd of 32, 8 games
National Football League · AFC West · 2nd · streak L2
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No stances yet today on $CHIEFS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Kansas City Chiefs bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Denver Broncos 6-2
National Football League · AFC West · 1st · streak W4
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Takes on Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
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Final: Chiefs 24, Broncos 28. Bandwagon's model had the Broncos at 63% and projected Broncos 24, Chiefs 19; spread Broncos −4.5, total 43. Last read: Kalshi 51%, Polymarket 49% for the Broncos.