The Buccaneers won 16-0 and the final is the only number that matters now. The model had Tampa Bay at 54 percent going in, and nobody in the thread picked a side, so the bandwagon is empty.
NFL · · Raymond James Stadium · every National Football League line
Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers: final score and how the prediction did, November 1, 2026
- Final scoreFalcons 0, Buccaneers 16 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerBuccaneers 54%
- Pregame Projected scoreBuccaneers 24, Falcons 22
- Model spreadBuccaneers −1.5 total 46
- Margin16 projected 1.5
- Total16 projected 46
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Atlanta Falcons or Tampa Bay Buccaneers: the bandwagon
Axle 46–54Market 46–55
FinalPregame: TB 54%Baseline: TB 82.1% (+28.4)Big swing: 14.4 ptsClutch window: none
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TB | 6 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 16 |
Game clock
Final
Down & distance
Final
Possession
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Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+0.0 points for TB over the last 5:00
Big swing14.4 ptstoward TB at 5:48 of game time
Clutch windowNonenever within 8 points in the final quarter
BaselineTB 82.1%game average, +28.4 points from the pregame 53.7%
Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | ATL | TB |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | ATL224 | TB322 |
| First downs | ATL8 | TB16 |
| 3rd down | ATL0/12 | TB4/13 |
| 4th down | ATL3/6 | TB0/0 |
| Turnovers | ATL4 | TB1 |
| Penalties-yards | ATL3-25 | TB5-40 |
| Yards per play | ATL4.3 | TB5.4 |
| Time of possession | ATL24:44 | TB35:16 |
| Red zone | ATL0/1 | TB1/3 |
Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | ATL | TB |
|---|---|---|
| Score | ATL0 | TB16 |
| Average win probability | ATL18% | TB82% |
| Longest scoring run | ATL+0 | TB+16 |
| Time leading | ATL0:00 | TB52:13 |
Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET
Falcons46%
Win chanceBuccaneers54%
SpreadTB −1.5closing model spread
Total46
Moneyline+116away / −116homeaway / home
Line movementTB win chance, 12 stored lines
+7 pts for TB between Oct 28 and Nov 1
59%42%
Oct 28Oct 30Nov 1
Every stored line
| Stored | TB win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 9:54 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 8:05 PM ET | 54% | +7 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:40 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 47% | — |
- Ratings
- TB 1469 · ATL 1479
- Home spread
- −1.5
- Stored
- Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET · 2026-11-01 10:02 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Atlanta Falcons 0, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In National Football League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries in the data, not usedplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores · read Oct 31, 5:30 AM UTC
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 1, 2:58 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
FalconsBuccaneers
Neutrals only–
FalconsBuccaneers
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Buccaneers–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Falcons vs Buccaneers odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NFL marketKalshi had the Buccaneers at 55% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 55% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 54% when last read, .
| Source | ATL | TB | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 46% | 55% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 46% | 55% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 46% | 54% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, TB: +1Polymarket minus model, TB: +1
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Buccaneers a 1.5-point favorite at home, with a 54% chance to win. The model total is 46. Ratings: Buccaneers 1494 (17th of 32), Falcons 1454 (19th). The Buccaneers are 3-5 in the NFC South; the Falcons are 3-5 in the NFC South. The Buccaneers have won 3 of their last 5; the Falcons 2 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Buccaneers won 2, the Falcons 4. The roster source lists 5 Buccaneers and 9 Falcons players as injured.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Atlanta Falcons
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | L 0–16 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs San Francisco 49ers | W 29–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Chicago Bears | L 23–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Baltimore Ravens | L 23–30 | – | – | matchup | |
| at New Orleans Saints | W 45–24 | – | – | matchup |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Atlanta Falcons | W 16–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Carolina Panthers | W 43–13 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Pittsburgh Steelers | L 19–26 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Dallas Cowboys | W 24–16 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Green Bay Packers | L 14–17 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 29–28 | – | – | matchup | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons | 23–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 31–26 | – | – | matchup | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons | 30–36 | – | – | matchup | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons | 29–25 | – | – | matchup | |
| Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 16–13 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Atlanta Falcons: Trey Sermon RB, Da'Shawn Hand DT, Beaux Collins WR, JD Bertrand LB, DeAngelo Malone LB, Michael Jerrell OT, Storm Norton OT, Anterio Thompson DT, Cameron Williams OL
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jalen McMillan WR, David Sills V WR, Christian Rozeboom LB, Mohamed Kamara LB, Josh Hayes CB
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Falcons3-5 NFC South, 3rd · L1
- Falcons rating1454 19th of 32, 8 games
- Buccaneers3-5 NFC South, 2nd · W2
- Buccaneers rating1494 17th of 32, 8 games
Atlanta Falcons 3-5
National Football League · NFC South · 3rd · streak L1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $FALCONS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $FALCONS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $FALCONS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $FALCONS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Atlanta Falcons bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
National Football League · NFC South · 2nd · streak W2
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $BUCCANEERS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $BUCCANEERS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $BUCCANEERS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $BUCCANEERS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sign in to post a take on $FALCONSBUCCANEERS261101: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
Final: Falcons 0, Buccaneers 16. Bandwagon's model had the Buccaneers at 54% and projected Buccaneers 24, Falcons 22; spread Buccaneers −1.5, total 46. Last read: Kalshi 55%, Polymarket 55% for the Buccaneers.