Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Chicago Bears prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerBears 71%
- Projected scoreBears 26, Buccaneers 19
- Model spreadBears −7 total 44.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Tampa Bay Buccaneers or Chicago Bears: the bandwagon
Axle 29–71Market 28–72
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Chicago Bears live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Chicago Bears team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | TB | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TB– | CHI– |
| Average win probability | TB– | CHI– |
| Longest scoring run | TB– | CHI– |
| Time leading | TB– | CHI– |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Chicago Bears model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | CHI win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 71% | +5 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 11:30 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 7:41 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 7:36 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:44 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:29 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:13 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:08 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 3:53 PM ET | 66% | −3 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 9:54 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 8:05 PM ET | 69% | −2 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:40 AM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 71% | — |
- Ratings
- CHI 1615 · TB 1494
- Home spread
- −7
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In National Football League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:34 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Buccaneers vs Bears odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NFL marketKalshi prices the Bears at 72%, Polymarket at 72%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 71%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | TB | CHI | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 28% | 72% | ||
| Polymarket | 28% | 72% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 29% | 71% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Chicago Bears prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Bears a 7-point favorite at home, with a 71% chance to win. The model total is 44.5. Ratings: Bears 1615 (6th of 32), Buccaneers 1494 (17th). The Bears are 6-2 in the NFC North; the Buccaneers are 3-5 in the NFC South. The Bears have won 4 of their last 5; the Buccaneers 3 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Bears won 0, the Buccaneers 1. The roster source lists 11 Bears and 5 Buccaneers players as injured.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Atlanta Falcons | W 16–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Carolina Panthers | W 43–13 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Pittsburgh Steelers | L 19–26 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Dallas Cowboys | W 24–16 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Green Bay Packers | L 14–17 | – | – | matchup |
Chicago Bears
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Seattle Seahawks | W 34–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New England Patriots | W 30–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Atlanta Falcons | W 31–23 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Green Bay Packers | L 7–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New York Jets | W 23–12 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 17–27 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jalen McMillan WR, David Sills V WR, Christian Rozeboom LB, Mohamed Kamara LB, Josh Hayes CB
Chicago Bears: Cole Kmet TE, Coby Bryant S, Dayo Odeyingbo DE, Ruben Hyppolite II LB, Brittain Brown RB, Dallis Flowers CB, Tony Fields II LB, Braxton Jones OT, Nikola Kalinic TE, Hayden Large TE, Nephi Sewell LB
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Buccaneers3-5 NFC South, 2nd · W2
- Buccaneers rating1494 17th of 32, 8 games
- Bears6-2 NFC North, 2nd · W3
- Bears rating1615 6th of 32, 8 games
National Football League · NFC South · 2nd · streak W2
No stances yet today on $BUCCANEERS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Chicago Bears 6-2
National Football League · NFC North · 2nd · streak W3
No stances yet today on $BEARS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Chicago Bears bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: Bears 71% to win. Projected score Bears 26, Buccaneers 19; spread Bears −7, total 44.5. Kalshi 72%, Polymarket 72% for the Bears. Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears, Sun, Nov 8, 8:20 PM ET.