Las Vegas Raiders vs San Francisco 49ers prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winner49ers 80%
- Projected score49ers 30, Raiders 19
- Model spread49ers −10.5 total 49
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Las Vegas Raiders or San Francisco 49ers: the bandwagon
Axle 20–80Market 19–81
Las Vegas Raiders at San Francisco 49ers win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Las Vegas Raiders vs San Francisco 49ers live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Las Vegas Raiders vs San Francisco 49ers team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | LV | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Score | LV– | SF– |
| Average win probability | LV– | SF– |
| Longest scoring run | LV– | SF– |
| Time leading | LV– | SF– |
Las Vegas Raiders vs San Francisco 49ers model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | SF win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 11:30 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 7:41 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 7:36 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:44 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:29 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:13 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:08 PM ET | 80% | −1 |
| Nov 1, 3:53 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 9:54 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 8:05 PM ET | 81% | −2 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:40 AM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 83% | — |
- Ratings
- SF 1620 · LV 1411
- Home spread
- −10.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In National Football League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:34 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Raiders vs 49ers odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NFL marketKalshi prices the 49ers at 81%, Polymarket at 81%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 80%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | LV | SF | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 19% | 81% | ||
| Polymarket | 19% | 81% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 20% | 80% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Las Vegas Raiders vs San Francisco 49ers prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the 49ers a 10.5-point favorite at home, with a 80% chance to win. The model total is 49. Ratings: 49ers 1620 (4th of 32), Raiders 1411 (25th). The 49ers are 6-1 in the NFC West; the Raiders are 4-4 in the AFC West. The 49ers have won 4 of their last 5; the Raiders 1 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the 49ers won 1, the Raiders 0. The roster source lists 16 49ers and 7 Raiders players as injured.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Las Vegas Raiders
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at New York Jets | W 38–33 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Los Angeles Rams | L 21–35 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Buffalo Bills | L 30–33 | – | – | matchup | |
| at New England Patriots | L 17–45 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Kansas City Chiefs | L 27–30 | – | – | matchup |
San Francisco 49ers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Atlanta Falcons | L 20–29 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Washington Commanders | W 23–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Seattle Seahawks | W 32–29 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Denver Broncos | W 24–14 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Arizona Cardinals | W 36–30 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers at Las Vegas Raiders | 37–34 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Las Vegas Raiders: Patrick Johnson DE, Carter Runyon TE, Brennan Jackson LB, Chigozie Anusiem CB, Chris Collier RB, Keyron Crawford DE, Justin Pickett G
San Francisco 49ers: Ricky Pearsall WR, Demarcus Robinson WR, Isaac Guerendo RB, Nate Hobbs CB, C.J. West DT, Alfred Collins DT, Jake Tonges TE, Nick Martin LB, Sam Okuayinonu DT, Andrew Farmer II DE, Darrick Forrest S, Mikail Kamara DE, Austen Pleasants OT, De'Zhaun Stribling WR, Brett Toth C, Nick Zakelj OT
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Raiders4-4 AFC West, 3rd · W1
- Raiders rating1411 25th of 32, 8 games
- 49ers6-1 NFC West, 1st · L1
- 49ers rating1620 4th of 32, 7 games
National Football League · AFC West · 3rd · streak W1
No stances yet today on $RAIDERS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Las Vegas Raiders bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
National Football League · NFC West · 1st · streak L1
No stances yet today on $49ERS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the San Francisco 49ers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Las Vegas Raiders at San Francisco 49ers
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Model: 49ers 80% to win. Projected score 49ers 30, Raiders 19; spread 49ers −10.5, total 49. Kalshi 81%, Polymarket 81% for the 49ers. Las Vegas Raiders at San Francisco 49ers, Sun, Nov 8, 4:25 PM ET.