Los Angeles Chargers vs Baltimore Ravens prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerRavens 69%
- Projected scoreRavens 25, Chargers 19
- Model spreadRavens −6 total 44
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Los Angeles Chargers or Baltimore Ravens: the bandwagon
Axle 31–69Market 44–56
Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Los Angeles Chargers vs Baltimore Ravens live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Los Angeles Chargers vs Baltimore Ravens team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | LAC | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Score | LAC– | BAL– |
| Average win probability | LAC– | BAL– |
| Longest scoring run | LAC– | BAL– |
| Time leading | LAC– | BAL– |
Los Angeles Chargers vs Baltimore Ravens model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | BAL win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 11:30 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 7:41 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 7:36 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 6:56 PM ET | 69% | +2 |
| Nov 1, 4:44 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:29 PM ET | 67% | −2 |
| Nov 1, 4:13 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:08 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 3:53 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 9:54 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 8:05 PM ET | 69% | +1 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:40 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 68% | — |
- Ratings
- BAL 1502 · LAC 1399
- Home spread
- −6
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In National Football League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:34 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Chargers vs Ravens odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NFL marketKalshi prices the Ravens at 56%, Polymarket at 57% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 69%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | LAC | BAL | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 44% | 56% | ||
| Polymarket | 43% | 57% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 31% | 69% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Los Angeles Chargers vs Baltimore Ravens prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Ravens a 6-point favorite at home, with a 69% chance to win. The model total is 44. Ratings: Ravens 1502 (16th of 32), Chargers 1399 (28th). The Ravens are 4-4 in the AFC North; the Chargers are 0-7 in the AFC West. The Ravens have won 2 of their last 5; the Chargers 0 of their last 5. The two have met 2 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Ravens won 2, the Chargers 0. The roster source lists 8 Ravens and 9 Chargers players as injured.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Los Angeles Chargers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Los Angeles Rams | L 9–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Kansas City Chiefs | L 6–22 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Denver Broncos | L 17–23 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Seattle Seahawks | L 23–30 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Buffalo Bills | L 16–24 | – | – | matchup |
Baltimore Ravens
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Buffalo Bills | L 10–36 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Cincinnati Bengals | L 13–35 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Cleveland Browns | L 10–13 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Atlanta Falcons | W 30–23 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Tennessee Titans | W 24–18 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Chargers | 30–23 | – | – | matchup | |
| Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Chargers | 20–10 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Los Angeles Chargers: Trey Lance QB, Derwin James Jr. S, David Njoku TE, Alec Ingold FB, Denzel Perryman LB, Trevor Penning G, Trey Pipkins III OT, Rashawn Slater OT, Isaiah World OT
Baltimore Ravens: Tyler Loop PK, Skylar Thompson QB, Tavius Robinson LB, Durham Smythe TE, Bilhal Kone CB, Danny Pinter C, Adam Randall RB, Jahquez Robinson S
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Chargers0-7 AFC West, 4th · L7
- Chargers rating1399 28th of 32, 7 games
- Ravens4-4 AFC North, 4th · L3
- Ravens rating1502 16th of 32, 8 games
National Football League · AFC West · 4th · streak L7
No stances yet today on $CHARGERS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Los Angeles Chargers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Baltimore Ravens 4-4
National Football League · AFC North · 4th · streak L3
2 stances today on $RAVENS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Baltimore Ravens bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: Ravens 69% to win. Projected score Ravens 25, Chargers 19; spread Ravens −6, total 44. Kalshi 56%, Polymarket 57% for the Ravens. Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens, Mon, Nov 16, 8:15 PM ET.