Detroit Lions vs Miami Dolphins prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerLions 72%
- Projected scoreLions 27, Dolphins 20
- Model spreadLions −6.5 total 47
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Detroit Lions or Miami Dolphins: the bandwagon
Axle 72–28Market 75–25
Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Detroit Lions vs Miami Dolphins live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Detroit Lions vs Miami Dolphins team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | DET | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DET– | MIA– |
| Average win probability | DET– | MIA– |
| Longest scoring run | DET– | MIA– |
| Time leading | DET– | MIA– |
Detroit Lions vs Miami Dolphins model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | MIA win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 28% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 28% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 28% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 28% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 28% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 11:30 PM ET | 28% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 7:41 PM ET | 28% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 7:36 PM ET | 28% | −1 |
| Nov 1, 4:44 PM ET | 29% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:29 PM ET | 29% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:13 PM ET | 29% | −2 |
| Nov 1, 4:08 PM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 3:53 PM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 9:54 PM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 8:05 PM ET | 31% | +3 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 28% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 28% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:40 AM ET | 28% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 28% | — |
- Ratings
- MIA 1375 · DET 1580
- Home spread
- +6.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In National Football League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 10:03 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Lions vs Dolphins odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NFL marketKalshi prices the Lions at 75%, Polymarket at 75%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 72%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | DET | MIA | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 75% | 25% | ||
| Polymarket | 75% | 26% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 72% | 28% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Detroit Lions vs Miami Dolphins prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Lions a 6.5-point favorite, with a 72% chance to win. The model total is 47. Ratings: Dolphins 1375 (30th of 32), Lions 1580 (10th). The Dolphins are 1-6 in the AFC East; the Lions are 5-2 in the NFC North. The Dolphins have won 1 of their last 5; the Lions 4 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Dolphins won 1, the Lions 0. The roster source lists 6 Dolphins and 12 Lions players as injured.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Detroit Lions
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Minnesota Vikings | W 19–15 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Green Bay Packers | W 20–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Arizona Cardinals | W 45–21 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Carolina Panthers | L 26–32 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New York Jets | W 31–24 | – | – | matchup |
Miami Dolphins
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs New England Patriots | L 19–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| at New York Jets | W 28–25 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Cincinnati Bengals | L 24–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Minnesota Vikings | L 10–15 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Kansas City Chiefs | L 10–24 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins at Detroit Lions | 31–27 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Detroit Lions: Isiah Pacheco RB, Kerby Joseph S, Devin White LB, Tom Kennedy WR, Avonte Maddox CB, Damone Clark LB, Thomas Harper S, Ben Bartch G, Kendrick Law WR, Giovanni Manu OT, Cade Mays C, Payton Turner DE
Miami Dolphins: De'Von Achane RB, Ronnie Harrison Jr. LB, Darrell Baker Jr. CB, Rene Konga DT, Trey Moore LB, Cole Turner TE
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Lions5-2 NFC North, 2nd · W3
- Lions rating1580 10th of 32, 7 games
- Dolphins1-6 AFC East, 4th · L1
- Dolphins rating1375 30th of 32, 7 games
Detroit Lions 5-2
National Football League · NFC North · 2nd · streak W3
No stances yet today on $LIONS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Detroit Lions bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Miami Dolphins 1-6
National Football League · AFC East · 4th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $DOLPHINS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Miami Dolphins bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: Lions 72% to win. Projected score Lions 27, Dolphins 20; spread Lions −6.5, total 47. Kalshi 75%, Polymarket 75% for the Lions. Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET.