Patriots 24, Dolphins 19, and the model had Miami at 28 percent before kickoff. No crowd picks were logged, so the bandwagon is empty, and nobody on it is going to claim they saw this coming.
NFL · · Hard Rock Stadium · every National Football League line
New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins: final score and how the prediction did, November 1, 2026
- Final scorePatriots 24, Dolphins 19 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerPatriots 72%
- Pregame Projected scorePatriots 25, Dolphins 19
- Model spreadPatriots −6.5 total 44
- Margin5 projected 6.5
- Total43 projected 44
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
New England Patriots or Miami Dolphins: the bandwagon
Axle 72–28Market 76–24
FinalPregame: MIA 28%Baseline: MIA 31.8% (+3.4)Big swing: 30.6 ptsClutch window: 4:25
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | 3 | 0 | 14 | 7 | 24 |
| MIA | 3 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 19 |
Game clock
Final
Down & distance
Final
Possession
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New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable−0.2 points for MIA over the last 5:00
Big swing30.6 ptstoward NE at 44:01 of game time
Clutch window4:25within 8 points in the final quarter
BaselineMIA 31.8%game average, +3.4 points from the pregame 28.4%
New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | NE | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | NE313 | MIA269 |
| First downs | NE16 | MIA17 |
| 3rd down | NE6/14 | MIA7/14 |
| 4th down | NE2/2 | MIA0/0 |
| Turnovers | NE1 | MIA1 |
| Penalties-yards | NE7-46 | MIA6-50 |
| Yards per play | NE5.3 | MIA4.5 |
| Time of possession | NE31:57 | MIA28:03 |
| Red zone | NE1/2 | MIA1/2 |
New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | NE | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NE24 | MIA19 |
| Average win probability | NE68% | MIA32% |
| Longest scoring run | NE+21 | MIA+13 |
| Time leading | NE20:56 | MIA23:28 |
New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 1, 4:44 PM ET
Patriots72%
Win chanceDolphins28%
SpreadNE −6.5closing model spread
Total44
Moneyline−254away / +254homeaway / home
Line movementMIA win chance, 17 stored lines
+9 pts for MIA between Oct 28 and Nov 1
34%14%
Oct 28Oct 30Nov 1
Every stored line
| Stored | MIA win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 4:44 PM ET | 28% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:44 PM ET | 28% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:29 PM ET | 28% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:13 PM ET | 28% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:08 PM ET | 28% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 3:53 PM ET | 28% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 28% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 28% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 28% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 28% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 28% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 9:54 PM ET | 28% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 8:05 PM ET | 28% | +9 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 19% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 19% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:40 AM ET | 19% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 19% | — |
- Ratings
- MIA 1384 · NE 1589
- Home spread
- +6.5
- Stored
- Nov 1, 4:44 PM ET · 2026-11-01 21:44 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: New England Patriots 24, Miami Dolphins 19. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In National Football League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries in the data, not usedplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores · read Oct 31, 5:30 AM UTC
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 1, 2:58 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
PatriotsDolphins
Neutrals only–
PatriotsDolphins
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Dolphins–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Patriots vs Dolphins odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NFL marketKalshi had the Patriots at 76% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 76% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 72% when last read, .
| Source | NE | MIA | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 76% | 24% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 76% | 24% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 72% | 28% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, MIA: −4Polymarket minus model, MIA: −4
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Patriots a 6.5-point favorite, with a 72% chance to win. The model total is 44. Ratings: Dolphins 1375 (30th of 32), Patriots 1599 (8th). The Dolphins are 1-6 in the AFC East; the Patriots are 5-3 in the AFC East. The Dolphins have won 1 of their last 5; the Patriots 4 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Dolphins won 4, the Patriots 2. The roster source lists 6 Dolphins and 12 Patriots players as injured.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
New England Patriots
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Miami Dolphins | W 24–19 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Chicago Bears | L 24–30 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New York Jets | W 26–19 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Las Vegas Raiders | W 45–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Buffalo Bills | W 29–26 | – | – | matchup |
Miami Dolphins
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs New England Patriots | L 19–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| at New York Jets | W 28–25 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Cincinnati Bengals | L 24–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Minnesota Vikings | L 10–15 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Kansas City Chiefs | L 10–24 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots | 10–38 | – | – | matchup | |
| New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins | 33–27 | – | – | matchup | |
| New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins | 15–34 | – | – | matchup | |
| Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots | 15–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins | 17–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots | 24–17 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
New England Patriots: Romeo Doubs WR, Mack Hollins WR, Harold Landry III LB, Reggie Gilliam FB, Julian Hill TE, Dell Pettus S, Quintayvious Hutchins LB, Khalil Jacobs LB, Myles Montgomery RB, Mike Onwenu G, Greg Van Roten G, Alijah Vera-Tucker G
Miami Dolphins: De'Von Achane RB, Ronnie Harrison Jr. LB, Darrell Baker Jr. CB, Rene Konga DT, Trey Moore LB, Cole Turner TE
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Patriots5-3 AFC East, 2nd · W1
- Patriots rating1599 8th of 32, 8 games
- Dolphins1-6 AFC East, 4th · L1
- Dolphins rating1375 30th of 32, 7 games
National Football League · AFC East · 2nd · streak W1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $PATRIOTS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $PATRIOTS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $PATRIOTS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $PATRIOTS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the New England Patriots bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Miami Dolphins 1-6
National Football League · AFC East · 4th · streak L1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $DOLPHINS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $DOLPHINS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $DOLPHINS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $DOLPHINS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Miami Dolphins bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
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Final: Patriots 24, Dolphins 19. Bandwagon's model had the Patriots at 72% and projected Patriots 25, Dolphins 19; spread Patriots −6.5, total 44. Last read: Kalshi 76%, Polymarket 76% for the Patriots.