Lions 19, Vikings 15, and the bandwagon never showed up: zero picks on the board. The model still has Detroit at 45 percent, so the numbers lean Minnesota even on a final.
NFL · · Ford Field · every National Football League line
Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions: final score and how the prediction did, November 1, 2026
- Final scoreVikings 15, Lions 19 the projected winner lost
- Pregame Projected winnerVikings 55%
- Pregame Projected scoreVikings 23, Lions 22
- Model spreadVikings −1 total 45.5
- Margin4 projected 1
- Total34 projected 45.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Minnesota Vikings or Detroit Lions: the bandwagon
Axle 55–45Market 37–63
FinalPregame: DET 45%Baseline: DET 50.5% (+5.0)Big swing: 50.7 ptsClutch window: 15:00
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 0 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 15 |
| DET | 3 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 19 |
Game clock
Final
Down & distance
Final
Possession
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Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumSwinging to DET+57.8 points for DET over the last 5:00
Big swing50.7 ptstoward DET at 55:25 of game time
Clutch window15:00within 8 points in the final quarter
BaselineDET 50.5%game average, +5.0 points from the pregame 45.4%
Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | MIN | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | MIN266 | DET384 |
| First downs | MIN15 | DET24 |
| 3rd down | MIN3/10 | DET5/13 |
| 4th down | MIN0/1 | DET0/0 |
| Turnovers | MIN1 | DET1 |
| Penalties-yards | MIN5-40 | DET7-76 |
| Yards per play | MIN5.3 | DET5.6 |
| Time of possession | MIN24:17 | DET35:43 |
| Red zone | MIN2/2 | DET1/3 |
Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | MIN | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MIN15 | DET19 |
| Average win probability | MIN50% | DET50% |
| Longest scoring run | MIN+8 | DET+9 |
| Time leading | MIN28:54 | DET16:36 |
Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 1, 4:08 PM ET
Vikings55%
Win chanceLions45%
SpreadMIN −1closing model spread
Total45.5
Moneyline−120away / +120homeaway / home
Line movementDET win chance, 14 stored lines
+6 pts for DET between Oct 28 and Nov 1
51%34%
Oct 28Oct 30Nov 1
Every stored line
| Stored | DET win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 4:08 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:08 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 3:53 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 9:54 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 8:05 PM ET | 45% | +6 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:40 AM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 39% | — |
- Ratings
- DET 1563 · MIN 1633
- Home spread
- +1
- Stored
- Nov 1, 4:08 PM ET · 2026-11-01 21:08 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Minnesota Vikings 15, Detroit Lions 19. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In National Football League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries in the data, not usedplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores · read Oct 31, 5:30 AM UTC
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Roofed venueforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
VikingsLions
Neutrals only–
VikingsLions
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Lions–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Vikings vs Lions odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NFL marketKalshi had the Vikings at 37% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 37% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 55% when last read, .
| Source | MIN | DET | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 37% | 63% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 37% | 63% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 55% | 45% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, DET: +17Polymarket minus model, DET: +17
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Vikings a 1-point favorite, with a 55% chance to win. The model total is 45.5. Ratings: Lions 1580 (10th of 32), Vikings 1616 (5th). The Lions are 5-2 in the NFC North; the Vikings are 6-1 in the NFC North. The Lions have won 4 of their last 5; the Vikings 4 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Lions won 4, the Vikings 2. The roster source lists 13 Lions and 7 Vikings players as injured.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Minnesota Vikings
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Detroit Lions | L 15–19 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Indianapolis Colts | W 16–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| at New Orleans Saints | W 23–13 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Miami Dolphins | W 15–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | W 23–16 | – | – | matchup |
Detroit Lions
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Minnesota Vikings | W 19–15 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Green Bay Packers | W 20–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Arizona Cardinals | W 45–21 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Carolina Panthers | L 26–32 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New York Jets | W 31–24 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings | 10–23 | – | – | matchup | |
| Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions | 27–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions | 9–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings | 31–29 | – | – | matchup | |
| Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions | 20–30 | – | – | matchup | |
| Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings | 30–24 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Minnesota Vikings: Jamal Adams LB, Jordan Mason RB, Josh Oliver TE, Tyler Batty LB, Donovan Jackson G, Dwight McGlothern Jr. CB, Nick Samac C
Detroit Lions: Isiah Pacheco RB, Kerby Joseph S, Devin White LB, Tom Kennedy WR, Avonte Maddox CB, Damone Clark LB, Thomas Harper S, Ben Bartch G, Kendrick Law WR, Giovanni Manu OT, Cade Mays C, Jimmy Rolder LB, Payton Turner DE
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Vikings6-1 NFC North, 1st · L1
- Vikings rating1616 5th of 32, 7 games
- Lions5-2 NFC North, 3rd · W3
- Lions rating1580 10th of 32, 7 games
National Football League · NFC North · 1st · streak L1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $VIKINGS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $VIKINGS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $VIKINGS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $VIKINGS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Minnesota Vikings bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Detroit Lions 5-2
National Football League · NFC North · 3rd · streak W3
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $LIONS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $LIONS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $LIONS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $LIONS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Detroit Lions bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
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Final: Vikings 15, Lions 19. Bandwagon's model had the Vikings at 55% and projected Vikings 23, Lions 22; spread Vikings −1, total 45.5. Last read: Kalshi 37%, Polymarket 37% for the Vikings.