Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerJaguars 83%
- Projected scoreJaguars 27, Titans 17
- Model spreadJaguars −11 total 44
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Jacksonville Jaguars or Tennessee Titans: the bandwagon
Axle 83–17Market 82–18
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | JAX | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| Score | JAX– | TEN– |
| Average win probability | JAX– | TEN– |
| Longest scoring run | JAX– | TEN– |
| Time leading | JAX– | TEN– |
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | TEN win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 17% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 17% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 17% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 17% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 17% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 11:30 PM ET | 17% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 7:41 PM ET | 17% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 7:36 PM ET | 17% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:44 PM ET | 17% | −1 |
| Nov 1, 4:29 PM ET | 18% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:13 PM ET | 18% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:08 PM ET | 18% | −1 |
| Nov 1, 3:53 PM ET | 19% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 19% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 19% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 19% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 19% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 19% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 9:54 PM ET | 19% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 8:05 PM ET | 19% | +6 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 13% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 13% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:40 AM ET | 13% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 13% | — |
- Ratings
- TEN 1297 · JAX 1615
- Home spread
- +11
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In National Football League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:34 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Jaguars vs Titans odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NFL marketKalshi prices the Jaguars at 82%, Polymarket at 82%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 83%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | JAX | TEN | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 82% | 18% | ||
| Polymarket | 82% | 18% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 83% | 17% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Jaguars a 11-point favorite, with a 83% chance to win. The model total is 44. Ratings: Titans 1297 (32nd of 32), Jaguars 1615 (7th). The Titans are 1-7 in the AFC South; the Jaguars are 5-2 in the AFC South. The Titans have won 1 of their last 5; the Jaguars 4 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Titans won 1, the Jaguars 5. The roster source lists 8 Titans and 12 Jaguars players as injured.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Jacksonville Jaguars
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Indianapolis Colts | W 42–7 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Houston Texans | L 31–34 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Philadelphia Eagles | W 19–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Cincinnati Bengals | W 22–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New England Patriots | W 35–6 | – | – | matchup |
Tennessee Titans
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Cincinnati Bengals | L 36–43 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Cleveland Browns | L 24–27 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Indianapolis Colts | W 26–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Houston Texans | L 3–26 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Baltimore Ravens | L 18–24 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars | 7–41 | – | – | matchup | |
| Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans | 25–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars | 13–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans | 10–6 | – | – | matchup | |
| Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans | 20–28 | – | – | matchup | |
| Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars | 14–34 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Jacksonville Jaguars: DaVon Hamilton DT, Caleb Ransaw S, Eric Murray S, B.J. Green II DE, Jared Bartlett LB, Garrett DiGiorgio OT, Zach Durfee DE, Anton Harrison OT, Parker Hughes LB, Devon Marshall CB, Patrick Mekari G, Sam Mustipher C
Tennessee Titans: Tanoh Kpassagnon DE, Jaylen Harrell LB, Dorian Mausi LB, Kendell Brooks S, Fernando Carmona G, Milo Eifler LB, Jaren Kanak TE, Jackson Slater G
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Jaguars5-2 AFC South, 1st · W1
- Jaguars rating1615 7th of 32, 7 games
- Titans1-7 AFC South, 4th · L2
- Titans rating1297 32nd of 32, 8 games
National Football League · AFC South · 1st · streak W1
No stances yet today on $JAGUARS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Jacksonville Jaguars bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Tennessee Titans 1-7
National Football League · AFC South · 4th · streak L2
No stances yet today on $TITANS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Tennessee Titans bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: Jaguars 83% to win. Projected score Jaguars 27, Titans 17; spread Jaguars −11, total 44. Kalshi 82%, Polymarket 82% for the Jaguars. Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET.